“The number of U.S. workers receiving unemployment benefits has trended down to levels last seen in the early days of the recession — a signal that the jobless rate is poised to fall in the coming months.” Story at…
http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2013/06/06/fewer-people-receiving-unemployment-benefits/
ISM NON-MANUFACTURING IMPROVED
"The NMI™ registered 53.7 percent in May, 0.6
percentage point higher than the 53.1 percent registered in April. This
indicates continued growth at a slightly faster rate in the non-manufacturing
sector…The majority of respondents' comments are optimistic about business
conditions. However, there is a degree of uncertainty about the long-term
outlook." Press release from ISM
at… http://www.ism.ws/ismreport/nonmfgrob.cfm
The manufacturing part of the economy seems to be tanking
while the service sector is doing better.
Manufacturing may reflect the economic problems overseas. Manufacturing is much smaller than the service
sector in the US economy.
DECLINE IN WAGES THIS QUARTER
Mish Shedlock described the decline as “stunningly bad”. Quoting BLS: ‘Unit labor costs in nonfarm businesses fell 4.3 percent in the first quarter of 2013, the combined effect of a 3.8 percent decrease in hourly compensation and the 0.5 percent increase in productivity. The decline in hourly compensation is the largest in the series, which begins in 1947.’ Mish blamed the FED and Obamacare for the declines. Here’s the link for inquiring minds…
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2013/06/fed-policies-and-obama-programs.html
MARKET RECAP
Thursday, the S&P 500 closed up 0.9% to 1623 (rounded).
VIX fell 5% to 16.63. Thursday, the S&P 500 closed up 0.9% to 1623 (rounded).
MARKET INTERNALS
Internals bounced up some today, but I don’t see a
turnaround yet.
NTSM
Thursday, the overall NTSM analysis remained SELL at the close, based on
SENTIMENT and VIX.
MY INVESTED POSITION
I remain about 20% invested in stocks as of 5 March (S&P 500
-1540). My reasoning may be found at…(although
that probably looks pretty lame by now.)http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/2013/03/why-i-got-mostly-out-of-stock-market.html
The NTSM system sold at 1575 on 16 April. (This is just another reminder that I should follow the NTSM analysis and not act emotionally – I am under-performing my own system by about 2%!)
I have no problems leaving 20% or 30% invested. If the market is cut in half (worst case) I’d
only lose 10%-15% of my investments. It
also hedges the bet if I am wrong since I will have some invested if the market
goes up. No system is perfect.
