“In the week ending June 22, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 346,000, a decrease of 9,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 355,000. The 4-week moving average was 345,750, a decrease of 2,750 from the previous week's revised average of 348,500." From...
http://www.workforcesecurity.doleta.gov/press/2013/062713.asp
Breifing.com had indicated a consensus of 345,000 so
Initial Claims are in-line with estimates.
AMERICAN HOUSEHOLDS MATERIALLY WORSE THAN 2-YRS AGO
(Consumer Metrics Institute)
Regarding the latest GDP report from the BLS, here’s what
CMI had to say:“…global economic headwinds…do not bode well for sustaining even lackluster numbers over the balance of the year.”
“And we continue to note the one truly serious domestic issue within the data:
-- Real per capita disposable incomes took yet another hit. The astonishing annualized contraction of real per capita disposable income has now reached -9.21% -- dwarfing the -7.52% contraction rate recorded in the first quarter of 2009 (the worst quarterly contraction recorded during the official duration of the "Great Recession")…
…all of the unprecedented fiscal and monetary stimulus has left American households materially worse off than they were two years ago.” - Consumer Metrics Institute, Home of Daily Consumer Leading Indicators. Web Page at…
http://www.consumerindexes.com/
STOCKS HAVE BOTTOMED (CNBC)
Stocks have bottomed, and it's time to go
long, Dennis Gartman of The Gartman Letter said Wednesday. "I own a little bit," he said. "I
think it's the right thing to do." – Dennis Gartmanhttp://www.cnbc.com/id/100847356
My comment: Perhaps the S&P 500 has bottomed, but I think we will
need to revisit the bottom to know for sure.
This looks like a bounce to me that will fail and traders will return to
selling. I certainly can’t say when, but
my guess would be reasonably soon. These
bounces are sometimes topped by a big price increase, so the top may be
signaled by a really positive day - let’s say roughly 1.5% up for the S&P
500. Alternatively, the top of the
channel is about 1620 so the S&P 500 could top out close to today’s
close. Great prognosticator right? As Yogi didn’t say: "It's tough to make predictions,
especially about the future."
See MARKET INTERNALS AND WHY THIS ISN'T THE BOTTOM below.
MARKET REPORT
Thursday, the S&P 500 was up 0.6% to 1613 (rounded).
VIX was down about 2% to 16.86.Thursday, the S&P 500 was up 0.6% to 1613 (rounded).
NTSM
Thursday, the overall NTSM analysis was HOLD at the close. Sentiment, Price, Volume and VIX are all neutral.
MARKET INTERNALS AND WHY THIS ISN’T THE BOTTOM
Internals improved today, as expected on the up day. The 10d-MA of breadth is 51%; above 50% represents a positive
market, but I’d also like to see the 20d-MA above 50%. It is currently 46%.
New-highs outpaced new-lows by 62.
Over all, the number of stocks hitting new-highs was 88. This number is in line with the bottom of
similar dips in 2012 (looking at data 3-days after the bottom), however;
sentiment was entirely different at those bottoms. Here are the specifics:
3-days after the bottom in Nov 2012 there were 90 new-highs; 3-days
after the bottom in June 2012 80-stocks made new-highs. Sentiment for these 2-corrections was at 47%
and 46%, respectively, 3-days after the bottom. Current Sentiment
is 63% - entirely too bullish for a bottom.
Time will tell if I am right.
MY INVESTED POSITION
I remain about 20% invested in stocks as of 5 March (S&P 500
-1540). The NTSM system sold at
1575 on 16 April. (This is just another
reminder that I should follow the NTSM analysis and not act emotionally – I am
under-performing my own system by about 2%!)
I have no problems leaving 20% or 30% invested. If the market is cut in half (worst case) I’d
only lose 10%-15% of my investments. It
also hedges the bet if I am wrong since I will have some invested if the market
goes up. No system is perfect.
