JANUARY JOBS REPORT – STRONGER GROWTH (Bloomberg)
“Employers added more workers than projected in February, indicating the U.S. economy is starting to shake off the effects of the severe winter weather that slowed growth at the start of 2014. The 175,000 gain in employment followed a 129,000 increase the prior month…“The U.S. is on a stable trajectory for moderate growth,” said Julia Coronado, chief economist for North America at BNP Paribas in New York, and a former researcher at the central bank.” Full story at…
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-03-07/payrolls-in-u-s-rise-more-than-forecast-jobless-rate-climbs.html
The number beat expectations, but at least 200,000 jobs are needed just to keep up with population growth.  This is just more of the same – slow and not so steady growth.

Regarding the jobs report, Mish Shedlock at Global Economic Analysis said: “Beneath the surface, things look worse again. The household survey shows a gain of employment of only 42,000 while unemployment rose by 223,000.”  For a full look at the report see his detailed analysis at…

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/

PUTIN REBUFFS OBAMA (Reuters)

“President Vladimir Putin rebuffed a warning from U.S. President Barack Obama over Moscow's military intervention in Crimea, saying on Friday that Russia could not ignore calls for help from Russian speakers in Ukraine…Putin said in a statement that Moscow and Washington were still far apart on the situation in the former Soviet republic, where he said the new authorities had taken "absolutely illegitimate decisions on the eastern, southeastern and Crimea regions.”  Full story at…
http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/03/07/us-ukraine-crisis-idUSBREA1Q1E820140307?feedType=RSS&feedName=worldNews

MOSCOW TIMES – WHAT MOSCOW WANTS (Moscow Times)

“The current crisis is not about Crimea. It is about the rights of Russian-speakers throughout Ukraine whom the Kremlin wants to protect from violence and discrimination. Russia does not want a military intervention in Crimea and does not want to take Crimea from Ukraine. There is a political solution to this crisis.

First, create a coalition government in Kiev composed of all parties, including those from the east and south of the country…

Second, Ukraine needs to draft a democratic constitution that has guarantees for Ukraine's Russian-speaking population that would grant official status to the Russian language and establish the principle of federalism. 

Third, presidential and parliamentary elections must be held soon. Independent election observers must play an active role in ensuring that the elections are free and fair. There is a real danger that they will be manipulated by the neo-Nazi militants who de facto seized power in a coup.”  Full commentary at…

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/opinion/article/why-there-will-be-war-in-ukraine/495740.html

MARKET REPORT

Friday, the S&P 500 rose 1pt to 1878 (rounded). 
VIX was down about 1% to 14.07.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury Note rose slightly to 2.79%. 

Readers will note that I have been converted to a Bull.  I was bearish after April of 2013 and I remained that way for much of 2013.  I suggest that now I am a cautious Bull and I am fully invested (50% in stocks).  I’m inclined to add more to the stock portfolio on weakness, because bond yields are low. The concern now is that I don’t want to chase this market.  There will be a better buying opportunity later.

MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
The 10-day moving average of stocks advancing dropped again to 56% at the close.  (A number above 50% for the 10-day average is generally good news for the market.)   New-highs outpaced new-lows Friday, leaving the spread (new-highs minus new-lows) at +189.  (It was +237 Thursday). The 10-day moving average of change in the spread was +3. In other words, over the last 10-days, on average, the spread has increased by +3 each day. The internals remain positive on the market.

Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading. They are usually right, but they are often late.  They are most useful when they diverge from the Index.  In 2013, using these internals alone would have made a 16% return vs. 30% for the S&P 500 (in on Positive out on Negative – no shorting).  Of course, few trend-following systems will do well in an extreme low-volatility, straight-up year like 2013.

NTSM

The NTSM system remained HOLD today, Friday. The most recent Buy signal was 28 Feb, although I’ve adjusted the Buy override (5-10-20 Timer + Market Internals).  With the adjustments included, the Buy would have been 13 Feb. 

MY INVESTED POSITION

I am about 50% invested in stocks because I upped my stock holdings by 10% on 12 Feb and another 10% on 28 Feb.  That’s fully invested for me at least as far as long term money goes.  This is a suitable stock allocation for a balanced portfolio for someone my age.  Since bonds are yielding very little now, I will consider adding more to stocks later if there is a buying opportunity.