“That sound you heard Tuesday morning was a "sigh of relief" from traders after they saw headlines that Russian troops would cease exercises along the Ukrainian border, UBS' Art Cashin told CNBC. The news sent stocks sharply upward and easily helped make up losses from Monday's selloff…Before U.S. markets opened, Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered troops in western Russia to return to base, easing fears of war—at least for the time being, Cashin said…Investors should continue to monitor 10-year U.S. Treasury notes to measure the level of fear in the markets, Cashin said.” Story and video at…
http://www.cnbc.com/id/101464235
Putin’s statement included there's "no need yet" to use military force so this crisis is not over.
RUSSIAN AGGRESSION COMPARED TO NAZI GERMANY (CNBC)
“Russia's seizure of Crimea is the most
naked example of peacetime aggression that Europe has witnessed since Nazi
Germany invaded the Sudetenland in 1938. It may be fashionable to belittle the
"lessons of Munich," when Neville Chamberlain and Édouard Daladier
appeased Hitler, deferring to his claims on Czechoslovakia. But if the West
acquiesces to Crimea's annexation – the second time Russian President Vladimir Putin has stolen territory from a
sovereign state, following Russia's seizure of Georgia's Abkhazia and South
Ossetia regions in 2008 – today's democratic leaders will surely regret their
inaction.” Commentary at…http://www.cnbc.com/id/101462156
STOCK MARKET TROUBLE AHEAD, STILL (Hussman Funds)
“Last week, the S&P 500 closed at a record high.
Based on valuation measures that have maintained a nearly 90% correlation with
subsequent 10-year total returns (not only historically, but also in more
recent decades), we estimate that the S&P 500 is more than 100% above the
level at which it would be priced to achieve historically normal returns in the
coming years. Another way to say this is that at current prices, we estimate negative total returns for the S&P 500 on horizons
of 7-years and less…” – John Hussman, PhD, Weekly Market Commentary from
Hussman Funds at…http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc140303.htm
We’ve been reading this sort of report for more than a year from John Hussman and others. It's probably true, but when? Calling a top is no easy task.
MARKET REPORT
Tuesday, the S&P 500 was up about 1.5% to 1874 (rounded).
VIX fell about 12% to 14.10.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury Note jumped to 2.7% as investors decided the news was From Russia with Love.
MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
The 10-day moving average of stocks advancing rose to 57%
at the close. (A number above 50% for
the 10-day average is generally good news for the market.) New-highs outpaced new-lows Tuesday, leaving
the spread (new-highs minus new-lows) at +282. (It was +58 Monday). The 10-day moving average
of change in the spread was +9. In other words, over the last 10-days, on
average, the spread has increased by 9 each day. The internals are positive on
the market.
Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of
current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading.
They are usually right, but they are often late. They are most useful when they diverge from
the Index. In 2013, using these
internals alone would have made a 16% return vs. 30% for the S&P 500 (in on
Positive out on Negative – no shorting).
Of course, few trend-following systems will do well in an extreme
low-volatility, straight-up year like 2013.
NTSM
The NTSM system remained HOLD today, Tuesday. 
I am about 50% invested in stocks because I upped my
stock holdings by 10% on Friday, 28 Feb.
That’s fully invested for me at least as far as long term money
goes. This is a suitable stock
allocation for a balanced portfolio.
Since bonds are yielding very little now, I will consider adding more to
stocks later in the month or sooner if there is a significant buying
opportunity.
