“Federal Reserve officials debated at their July meeting whether to move sooner than expected to start raising interest rates in light of an improving job market and rising inflation, but decided they needed more evidence before concluding that was the right approach. The minutes of the meeting, released Wednesday, provide fresh evidence of an intensifying debate inside the central bank…"Many participants noted that if convergence toward the [Fed's] objectives occurred more quickly than expected, it might become appropriate to begin removing monetary policy accommodation sooner than they currently anticipated," said the minutes of the July 29-30 meeting.” Story at…
http://online.wsj.com/articles/fed-minutes-rate-hike-debate-heating-up-1408557628
The markets were down some after the release of the minutes, but recovered quickly.
HELP!!!!
Please provide feedback comments on this blog by emailing
to navigatethemarket@gmail.com with
your thoughts.-How’s the format?
-What more would you like to see?
-What do you not like?
-Is it too long?...too short?
-Is it helping you to manage your finances?
-Any general comments?
Thank-you, Meade.
NO CORRECTION?
The NTSM system is just recovering from another
frustrating SELL signal that apparently has turned out to be a false one. One cause was the VIX that exploded to the
upside. I had similar problems with the
Sentiment indicator as sentiment (measured by %-bulls in selected long/short
Rydex/Guggenheim funds calculated by {bulls/(bulls+bears)} has reached
multi-year extremes that are seemingly beyond any reasonable value. To correct for the extremes, I modified the
Sentiment indicator to rely on a statistical analysis. Now, buy and sell indicators for Sentiment
are based on a multiple of standard deviations from the mean. This technique adjusts for extremes and makes
it possible to use the same buy/sell indicators for different data sets. Perhaps I’ll look at the VIX indicator and
see if I can configure it to work the same way.
CRACKS IN THE UPTREND
RSI (14-day SMA) hit 71 today. 70 is overbought for this indicator. There has been late day selling for recently
and that usually means the smart money is cautious. I’m not particularly worried
because the Internals still look good.
MARKET REPORT
Wednesday, the S&P 500 was
UP 0.25% to 1987 (rounded). VIX fell about 4% to 11.69.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury Note was up some to 2.43% at the close; the bond Ghouls remain worried.
MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
The 10-day moving average of the percentage of stocks
advancing (NYSE) dropped to 62% at the close Wednesday. (A number above 50% for the 10-day average is
generally GOOD news for the market. The
average in a normally rising market is 53%.) New-highs still outpaced New-lows Wednesday. The spread (new-highs minus new-lows) was +123
(It was +155 Tuesday). The 10-day moving average of change in the spread was +16.
In other words, over the last 10-days, on average, the spread has INCREASED by
16 each day.Internals remain Positive on the market.
Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of
current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading.
They are usually right, but they are often late. They are most useful when they diverge from
the Index. In 2013, using these
internals alone would have made a 16% return vs. 30% for the S&P 500 (in on
Positive out on Negative – no shorting).
Of course, few trend-following systems will do well in an extreme
low-volatility, straight-up year like 2013.
NTSM
Wednesday, the NTSM is HOLD. All indicators are neutral.
MY INVESTED POSITION
I made a BUY call on Monday, 18 August 2014 because the
charts were looking better; therefore, I upped my invested percentage to 50%
invested in stocks on Tuesday 19 August.
The 5-10-20 Timer and Market Internals
both gave positive signals on 19 August confirming the previous day’s Buy
signal.--INDIVIDUAL STOCKS FROM A VALUE HOUND--
ENSCO (ESV): HOLD (Earnings announce 31 July)
For my initial discussion see the NTSM blog at:
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/2014/05/coppock-curve-says-stock-crash-nowblow.html
