“Many businesses said Obamacare is jacking up their employee health coverage costs, and they expect it to do so even more next year, two new surveys of businesses by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York have found. As a result, consumers in the areas covered by the bank could be paying more next year—and some workers at the firms might need to look for a new job, the surveys found. The median respondent to the N.Y. Fed surveys expects health coverage costs to jump by 10 percent next year, after seeing a similar percentage increase last year.” Story at…
http://www.cnbc.com/id/101927667
BULL MARKET WANING: BARCLAYS (Bloomberg)
“Five years of profit growth exceeding 17 percent is poised
to slow in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index, reducing returns as the bull market ages, according to Leuthold Group
LLC and Barclays Plc…Ramsey, who oversees about $1.7 billion at Leuthold in Minneapolis, said…“It’s dangerous to assume
that we’re going to have above-average earnings growth from current levels.
Earnings are not depressed like where they were in 2009...this bull market now
relies more on sales and earnings to stay in course than multiple expansions,
according to David Kahn, managing director at Convergent Wealth Advisors, which
oversees about $8.5 billion.” Story at…http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-08-17/bull-market-waning-as-barclays-sees-1-gain-for-s-p-500.html
ROULETTE WHEEL MARKET (Hussman Funds)
“The stock market is presently a roulette wheel with
dimes on black and dynamite on red. We continue to have extreme concerns about
the extent of potential market losses over the completion of the present market
cycle. At the same time, we have very little view with regard to short-term
market action. If one reviews market action surrounding major pre-crash peaks
such as 1929, 1972, 1987, 2000 and 2007, you’ll observe a sort of “resilience”
in the major indices on a day-to-day and week-to-week basis even after market
internals had already corroded.” John Hussman, PhD. Weekly Market comment from Hussman Funds at…
http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc140818.htm
ISLAMIC STATE: “WE WILL DROWN YOU IN BLOOD” (Reuters)
“Video from the Islamic State uploaded to a social media
website on Monday sends a message from its fighters to Americans. It reads: ‘We
will drown all of you in blood.’ The militant group has warned that it will
attack Americans anywhere if U.S. airstrikes hit Islamic State militants.”
Video at…http://www.reuters.com/video/2014/08/18/obama-calls-for-calm-in-missouri-as-nati?videoId=340526937&videoChannel=1&channelName=Top+News
MARKET REPORT
Tuesday, the S&P 500 was UP
0.5% to 1982 (rounded). VIX fell about 1% to 12.21.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury Note was up some to 2.40% at the close; the bond Ghouls remain worried.
CORRECTION OVER?
Yes, at least for the time being. There’s always
something to worry about, though, and now we need to see the Index move above
the prior high.
MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
The 10-day moving average of the percentage of stocks
advancing (NYSE) was up to 63% at the close Tuesday. (A number above 50% for the 10-day average is
generally GOOD news for the market. The
average in a normally rising market is 53%.
63% is almost too good.) New-highs still outpaced New-lows Tuesday. The spread (new-highs minus new-lows) was +155
(It was +148 Monday). The 10-day moving average of change in the spread was
+20. In other words, over the last 10-days, on average, the spread has INCREASED
by 20 each day. Internals remain Positive on the market.
Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of
current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading.
They are usually right, but they are often late. They are most useful when they diverge from
the Index. In 2013, using these
internals alone would have made a 16% return vs. 30% for the S&P 500 (in on
Positive out on Negative – no shorting).
Of course, few trend-following systems will do well in an extreme
low-volatility, straight-up year like 2013.
NTSM
Tuesday, the NTSM
analysis gave a BUY signal based on positive market internals (as noted above)
and a positive 5-10-20 Timer call. The
5-10-20 timer is now a buy because the 5-dEMA and the 10-dEMA have both crossed
above the 20-dEMA for the S&P 500 Index.
MY INVESTED POSITION
I made a BUY call on Monday, 18 August, because the
charts were looking better, therefore, I upped my invested percentage to 50% invested
in stocks on Tuesday 19 August.--INDIVIDUAL STOCKS FROM A VALUE HOUND--
ENSCO (ESV): HOLD (Earnings announce 31 July)
For my initial discussion see the NTSM blog at:
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/2014/05/coppock-curve-says-stock-crash-nowblow.html
