Thursday, the S&P 500 was down about 0.2% to 1997 (rounded).
VIX was UP about 2.3% to 12.05.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury Note was down slightly
to 2.33% at the close; the bond Ghouls remain worried.
Volume remains low; it was about 15% below the average
for the month. RSI (14-day SMA) dropped back to 64 Thursday at the close. 70 is the overbought value for this
indicator.
8 out of the last 10-days had been UP before Thursday’s
down day so the result Thursday was somewhat expected. Internals remained
neutral today.
MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
The 10-day moving average of the percentage of stocks
advancing (NYSE) fell slightly to 57% at the close Thursday. (A number above 50% for the 10-day average is
generally GOOD news for the market. The
average in a normally rising market is 53%.) New-highs outpaced New-lows Thursday. The spread (new-highs minus new-lows) was +109
(It was +145 Wednesday). The 10-day moving average of change in the spread was
+5. In other words, over the last 10-days, on average, the spread has INCREASED
by 5 each day.
Internals remained neutral on the market because the
smoothed 10-dMA of UP volume continues to fall.
This may be the result of low volume overall. Low overall volume means
that Up-volume is also low, so this may not be too meaningful now. All other Internals look good.
Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of
current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading.
They are usually right, but they are often late. They are most useful when they diverge from
the Index. In 2013, using these
internals alone would have made a 16% return vs. 30% for the S&P 500 (in on
Positive out on Negative – no shorting).
Of course, few trend-following systems will do well in an extreme
low-volatility, straight-up year like 2013.
NTSM
Thursday, the NTSM is
HOLD. The volume indicator is Positive. All
pther indicators are neutral. 
MY INVESTED STOCK POSITION
I made a BUY call on Monday, 18 August 2014 because the
charts were looking better; therefore, I upped my invested percentage to 50%
invested in stocks on Tuesday 19 August.
The 5-10-20 Timer and Market Internals
both gave positive signals on 19 August confirming the previous day’s Buy
signal.--INDIVIDUAL STOCKS FROM A VALUE HOUND--
ENSCO (ESV): BUY
For my initial discussion see the NTSM blog at:
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/2014/05/coppock-curve-says-stock-crash-nowblow.html
ESV has successfully tested its recent low as selling has declined at the low. Dividend is 6%. PE is 8.5 so downside is limited. I rate it BUY again even though you can find a lot of negative talk about the drillers.
