Monday, the S&P 500 was down about 1pt to 2002 (rounded).
VIX was up about 2% to 12.25.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury Note was UP to 2.42% at the close; the bond Ghouls remain worried. (This may actually be foreign demand driving down yields rather than fear of an economic decline.)
Volume was back to normal and even 5% above the average
for the month on the NYSE. RSI (14-day SMA) was 90 Monday at the close. 70 is the overbought
value for this indicator. The S&P 500 is at its upper trend line on the
charts so the RSI may be a warning of a bit of a pullback. 5% would be perfectly normal as a slight
pullback.
VALUATION (Advisor Perspectives)
Crestmont PE is now at 1929 levels; it needs about 20%
more to get to 2000 dot.com bubble levels. (Crestmont PE is based in part on Shiller methodology.) – Ed Easterling. For charts and
commentary see…http://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/Crestmont-PE-Ratio.php
MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
The 10-day moving average of the percentage of stocks
advancing (NYSE) fell to 56% at the close Monday. (A number above 50% for the 10-day average is
generally GOOD news for the market. The
average in a normally rising market is 53%.) New-highs outpaced New-lows Monday. The spread (new-highs minus new-lows) was +212
(It was +169 Friday). The 10-day moving average of change in the spread was +6.
In other words, over the last 10-days, on average, the spread has INCREASED by 6
each day.
Internals remained neutral on the market because the
smoothed 10-dMA of UP volume continues to fall.
All other Internals look good.
Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of
current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading.
They are usually right, but they are often late. They are most useful when they diverge from
the Index. In 2013, using these
internals alone would have made a 16% return vs. 30% for the S&P 500 (in on
Positive out on Negative – no shorting).
Of course, few trend-following systems will do well in an extreme
low-volatility, straight-up year like 2013.
NTSM
Monday, the NTSM is
HOLD. The volume indicator is Positive.
All pther indicators are neutral.
MY INVESTED STOCK POSITION
I made a BUY call on Monday, 18 August 2014 because the
charts were looking better; therefore, I upped my invested percentage to 50%
invested in stocks on Tuesday 19 August.
The 5-10-20 Timer and Market Internals
both gave positive signals on 19 August confirming the previous day’s Buy
signal. 50% is Fully invested for me since I am semi-retired. --INDIVIDUAL STOCKS FROM A VALUE HOUND--
ENSCO (ESV): BUY
For my initial discussion see the NTSM blog at:
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/2014/05/coppock-curve-says-stock-crash-nowblow.html
ESV has successfully tested its recent low as selling has declined at the low. Dividend is 6%. PE is 8.5 so downside is limited. I rate it BUY again even though you can find a lot of negative talk about the drillers.
Seeking Alpha (29 Aug 2014)
“Ensco looks attractive at current levels on a standalone
basis and relative to Seadrill. The company will continue to increase dividends at a
robust pace as new rigs become operations. Low leverage and attractive
valuations are the other positive factors for Ensco.” Story at...http://seekingalpha.com/article/2456795-ensco-looks-attractive-at-current-levels?uprof=44&dr=1
Commodities did poorly today (Monday), including oil and that probably pulled down ESV.
