Thursday, the S&P 500 was down about 0.2% to 1998 (rounded).
VIX was up about 2% to 12.64.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury Note was up to 2.45% at the close; the bond Ghouls remain worried. (This may actually be foreign demand driving down yields rather than fear of an economic decline.)
CRACKS IN THE RALLY?
Today is the 8th close at the top all within 6.5 points of
each other. This market doesn’t seem to
want to go higher; but we’ll see. RSI (14-day SMA) was 81 Thursday at
the close. 70 is the overbought value for this indicator. The S&P 500 is at
its upper trend line on the charts so the RSI may be a warning of a bit of a
pullback. 5% would be perfectly normal
as a slight pullback. The daily up/down
moves in the market continue to be abnormally small and that usually leads to a
pullback of some kind. I doubt that it will be the “big one”.
MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
The 10-day moving average of the percentage of stocks
advancing (NYSE) fell to 52% at the close Thursday.
(A number above 50% for the 10-day average is generally GOOD news for
the market. The average in a normally
rising market is 53%.) New-highs outpaced New-lows Thursday. The spread (new-highs minus new-lows) was +124
(It was +158 Wednesday). The 10-day moving average of change in the spread remained
0. In other words, over the last 10-days, on average, the spread has been FLAT each
day.
Internals remained neutral on the market. The smoothed 10-dMA of UP volume continues to
fall and the new-high/new-low data is trending down. Breadth has been declining
too. Deterioration in internals is continuing.
Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading. They are usually right, but they are often late. They are most useful when they diverge from the Index. In 2013, using these internals alone would have made a 16% return vs. 30% for the S&P 500 (in on Positive out on Negative – no shorting). Of course, few trend-following systems will do well in an extreme low-volatility, straight-up year like 2013.
NTSM
Thursday, the NTSM is HOLD. The volume indicator is Positive. All other
indicators are neutral. 
MY INVESTED STOCK POSITION
I made a BUY call on Monday, 18 August 2014 because the charts were looking better; therefore, I upped my invested percentage to 50% invested in stocks on Tuesday 19 August. The 5-10-20 Timer and Market Internals both gave positive signals on 19 August confirming the previous day’s Buy signal. 50% is Fully invested for me since I am semi-retired.
--INDIVIDUAL STOCKS FROM A VALUE HOUND--
ENSCO (ESV): BUY
For my initial discussion see the NTSM blog at:
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/2014/05/coppock-curve-says-stock-crash-nowblow.html
ESV has successfully tested its recent low as selling has declined at the low. Dividend is 6%. PE is 8.5 so downside is limited. I rate it BUY again even though you can find a lot of negative talk about the drillers.
