Tuesday, the S&P 500 was down about 0.1% to 2001 (rounded).
VIX was up about 1% to 12.36.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury Note was down slightly to 2.40% at the close; the bond Ghouls remain worried. (This may actually be foreign demand driving down yields rather than fear of an economic decline.)
Volume was a bit higher today, about 10% above the
average for the month on the NYSE. RSI (14-day SMA) was 86 Tuesday at the close. 70 is the overbought
value for this indicator. The S&P 500 is at its upper trend line on the
charts so the RSI may be a warning of a bit of a pullback. 5% would be perfectly normal as a slight
pullback. The daily up/down moves in the
market have been abnormally small recently and that usually leads to a pullback
of some kind. I doubt that it will be the “big one”.
MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
The 10-day moving average of the percentage of stocks
advancing (NYSE) fell to 54% at the close Tuesday. (A number above 50% for the 10-day average is
generally GOOD news for the market. The
average in a normally rising market is 53%.) New-highs outpaced New-lows Tuesday. The spread (new-highs minus new-lows) was +158
(It was +212 Monday). The 10-day moving average of change in the spread was +0.
In other words, over the last 10-days, on average, the spread has been FLAT each
day.
Internals remained neutral on the market. The smoothed 10-dMA of UP volume continues to
fall and today the new-high/new-low data turned down. Breadth has been
declining too. I am seeing some
deterioration in internals. We’ll see if
it continues.
Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of
current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading.
They are usually right, but they are often late. They are most useful when they diverge from
the Index. In 2013, using these
internals alone would have made a 16% return vs. 30% for the S&P 500 (in on
Positive out on Negative – no shorting).
Of course, few trend-following systems will do well in an extreme
low-volatility, straight-up year like 2013.
NTSM
Tuesday, the NTSM is
HOLD. The volume indicator is Positive.
All other indicators are neutral. 
I made a BUY call on Monday, 18 August 2014 because the charts were looking better; therefore, I upped my invested percentage to 50% invested in stocks on Tuesday 19 August. The 5-10-20 Timer and Market Internals both gave positive signals on 19 August confirming the previous day’s Buy signal. 50% is Fully invested for me since I am semi-retired.
--INDIVIDUAL STOCKS FROM A VALUE HOUND--
ENSCO (ESV): BUY
For my initial discussion see the NTSM blog at:
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/2014/05/coppock-curve-says-stock-crash-nowblow.html
ESV has successfully tested its recent low as selling has declined at the low. Dividend is 6%. PE is 8.5 so downside is limited. I rate it BUY again even though you can find a lot of negative talk about the drillers.
