“The number of job openings in the US fell from a 14-year high in March, while the number of Americans getting hired and leaving jobs increased. Job openings slid to just under five million in March, down from 5.1 million in February. The number of Americans actually hired to fill jobs ticked up to nearly 5.1 million in March, compared with five million in February…” Story at…
http://www.heraldsun.com.au/business/breaking-news/us-job-openings-slip-from-14-year-high/story-fnn9c0hb-1227352716303
STOCK MARKET CRASH (Chris Ciovacco Tumblr)
“…we searched the Google news archives for ‘stock market crash’. Below is a sample of what we found along with the dates of publication:
-“Warning: Crash dead ahead. Sell. Get liquid. Now” - 05/25/10
-“Stock Market Crash Alert, Market is Falling Like a Stone” - 05/26/12
-“Warning: Stock Market Likely to Crash From Here, 50% Drop!” - 02/28/13
-“The Bearish Call to End All Bearish Calls” - 01/03/14
-“Crash of 2014: Like 1929, you’ll never hear it coming” - 02/24/14
-“New doomsday poll: 99.9% risk of 2014 crash” - 03/17/14
-“10 peaking megabubbles signal impending stock crash” - 05/09/14
-“15 Big Oil sell signals that warn of a 50% stock crash” - 10/27/14
-“Five reasons why markets are heading for a crash” - 12/02/14
…Given what we know today, the hard data continues to favor an equity-heavy allocation.” – Chris Ciovacco. Commentary at…
http://chrisciovacco.tumblr.com/post/118703771836/talk-of-a-stock-market-crash-how-concerned
MARKET REPORT
-Tuesday, the S&P 500 was down about 0.3% to 2099 at the close. (The Russell 2000 didn’t fare any better.
-VIX was up about 0.1% to 13.86. (VIX didn’t move much today, so perhaps the options boys think there is a turnaround coming.)
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury Note dipped to 2.25%. (This breather in bond selling may make stocks look good again.)
The S&P 500 dropped a few points below its 50-day moving average in the morning and recovered from there. I view this as reasonably bullish. I can’t get too upbeat, though; the market internals continue to look bad. We’ll just have to wait and see what happens from here. I am cautiously optimistic, but there isn’t too much hard evidence for optimism except that the Index still remains about 0.5% above its 50-dMA.
MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
The 10-day moving average of the percentage of stocks advancing (NYSE) dipped to 45% at the close Tuesday. (A number below 50% is usually BAD news for the markets; but let’s be optimistic and see what happens tomorrow.) In a negative reversal, New-lows outpaced New-highs Tuesday. The spread (new-highs minus new-lows) was minus-32. (It was +32 Monday.) The 10-day moving average of change in the spread dropped to minus-7. In other words, over the last 10-days, on average; the spread has fallen by 7 each day.
Internals remained negative on the markets.
Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading. They are usually right, but they are often late. They are most useful when they diverge from the Index. In 2014, using these internals alone would have made a 9% return vs. 13% for the S&P 500 (in on Positive out on Negative – no shorting). Of course, few trend-following systems will do well in an extreme low-volatility, nearly straight-up year like 2014.
NTSM
Tuesday, the NTSM analysis remained HOLD. PRICE, VOLUME, VIX and SENTIMENT indicators are neutral, although (as always) sentiment remains extremely high.
MY INVESTED STOCK POSITION
I remain fully invested at 50% invested, mostly in smaller
cap-stocks in the long-term portfolio with some international stocks. 50% is
conservative, but appropriate for a conservative retired guy. The Dow Jones US Completion Index (all stocks except the S&P 500 – the “S” fund in the TSP) remains ahead of the S&P 500. Since 1 February it is 2.1% ahead of the S&P 500. Since 1 March the Euro-Pacific ETF (EFA) (“I”-fund) is 3% ahead of the S&P 500.
THRIFT SAVINGS PLAN (TSP) MEMBERS
My TSP Allocation: 50%-G; 10%-C; 25%-S; 15%-I. (50% cash is too high for non-retirees, however, the “G”-fund did return 2.2% over the last 12-months and that is exceptional for risk-free money.)
