“The average number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits over the past four weeks dropped to a 15-year low, a sign the labor market continues to strengthen…On a weekly basis, applications rose by 10,000 to 274,000…The number of people continuing to receive jobless benefits decreased by 12,000 to 2.21 million in the week ended May 9, the lowest level since November 2000.” Story at…
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-05-21/jobless-claims-in-u-s-fall-over-past-month-to-15-year-low
LEADING INDICATORS (MarketWatch)
“The leading economic index rose 0.7% in April, indicating the U.S. is still expanding despite a first-quarter freeze. "April's sharp increase in the LEI seems to have helped stabilize its slowing trend, suggesting the paltry economic growth in the first quarter may be temporary," said Ataman Ozyildirim, economist at The Conference Board…” Story at…
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-leading-indicators-climb-07-in-april-2015-05-21
PHILLY FED (NASDAQ.com)
“The Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey suggests modest expansion of the region's manufacturing sector in May. The indicators for general activity and new orders both suggest expansion, but at a continued modest pace.” Full press release at…
http://www.nasdaq.com/article/press-release-philadelphia-fed-survey-reports-manufacturing-activity-increased-modestly-in-may-20150521-00750
MARKET REPORT
-Thursday, the S&P 500 was up about 0.2% to 2131 at the close.
-VIX fell about 6% to 12.11.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury Note dropped to 2.19%.
The transportation stocks were down more than 2% Wednesday. The continuing fall of the transports has caused many to worry about a possible Dow Theory sell-signal since it relies heavily on the transports. As I wondered in Monday’s blog, the Cass Freight Index showed that tonnage has increased; so what’s up with the transports? From CNBC: “Cramer took a closer look at the transports group, he was able to pinpoint the source of the problem down to the airlines. ‘Sometimes though, this kind of action is a sign not of weakening trade, but of potentially ruinous, cutthroat competition. And that's what is driving the group down at this very moment,’ Cramer said.” Commentary from CNBC at…
http://www.cnbc.com/id/102696018
As of Thursday, there still have been only 47-up days in the last 5-months and that is a low number that suggests further upside in a Bull market. For the time being, we are still in a bull-market and I remain bullish for the next few months.
MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
The 10-day moving average of the percentage of stocks advancing (NYSE) dipped to 55% at the close Thursday. (A number above 50% is usually GOOD news for the markets. New-highs outpaced New-lows Thursday. The spread (new-highs minus new-lows) was +48. (It was +78 Wednesday.) The 10-day moving average of change in the spread dropped to +8. In other words, over the last 10-days, on average; the spread has increased by 8 each day.
Internals remained positive on the markets.
NTSM
Thursday, the NTSM analysis remained HOLD. PRICE is positive. VOLUME, VIX and SENTIMENT indicators are neutral, although (as always) sentiment remains extremely high.
MY INVESTED STOCK POSITION
I remain fully invested at 50% invested, mostly in smaller
cap-stocks in the long-term portfolio with some international stocks. 50% is
conservative, but appropriate for a conservative retired guy. The Dow Jones US Completion Index (all stocks except the S&P 500 – the “S” fund in the TSP) remains ahead of the S&P 500. Since 1 February it is 2.5% ahead of the S&P 500. Since 1 March the Euro-Pacific ETF (EFA) (“I”-fund) is 3.8% ahead of the S&P 500.
THRIFT SAVINGS PLAN (TSP) MEMBERS
My TSP Allocation: 50%-G; 10%-C; 25%-S; 15%-I. (50% cash is too high for non-retirees, however, the “G”-fund did return 2.2% over the last 12-months and that is exceptional for risk-free money.)
