“For the 12th consecutive week, the number of applications for jobless benefits remained below 300,000, according to figures from the Labor Department issued Thursday. The report for the seven days ended May 23 showed that claims are hovering just above 15-year lows reached at the end of April…Jobless claims increased last week by 7,000 to 282,000, the Labor Department’s data showed. The prior week’s reading was revised to 275,000 from an initially reported 274,000.” Story at…
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-05-28/jobless-claims-in-u-s-hold-below-300-000-for-12th-straight-week
CRUDE INVENTORIES (Reuters)
“Oil prices rose in choppy trade on Thursday, snapping two days of sharp losses, after data showed a fourth weekly drawdown in U.S. crude stocks. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said crude oil inventories fell by 2.8 million barrels last week…” Story at…
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/05/28/us-markets-oil-idUSKBN0OD04820150528
My cmt: Most traders seem to think oil will fall again.
MARKET REPORT
-Thursday, the S&P 500 was down about 0.1% to 2121 at the close.
-VIX rose about 0.3% to 13.31. (The options boys weren’t too worried about today’s down day.)
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury Note inched up to 2.14%.
SENTIMENT: I measure sentiment using a 5-day moving average of funds invested in selected Rydex/Guggenheim funds calculated as {bulls/(bulls+bears)} . Sentiment is screaming higher from 78%-bulls, 6-days ago, to 82%-bulls yesterday. It may not sound like much, but it is a big move in a short amount of time. That trend must be watched. Too much bullishness will suggest trouble ahead, sooner rather than later.
MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
The 10-day moving average of the percentage of stocks advancing (NYSE) slipped to 51% at the close Thursday. (A number above 50% is usually GOOD news for the markets. New-highs outpaced New-lows Thursday. The spread (new-highs minus new-lows) was +8. (It was +19 Wednesday.) The 10-day moving average of change in the spread fell to -1. In other words, over the last 10-days, on average; the spread has decreased by 1 each day.
Internals deteriorated, but remained neutral on the
markets.
Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of
current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading.
They are usually right, but they are often late. They are most useful when they diverge from
the Index. In 2014, using these
internals alone would have made a 9% return vs. 13% for the S&P 500 (in on
Positive out on Negative – no shorting).
Of course, few trend-following systems will do well in an extreme
low-volatility, nearly straight-up year like 2014.
NTSM
Thursday, the NTSM analysis remained HOLD. PRICE is positive. VOLUME, VIX and SENTIMENT indicators are neutral, although (as always) sentiment remains extremely high.
MY INVESTED STOCK POSITION
I remain fully invested at 50% invested, mostly in smaller
cap-stocks in the long-term portfolio with some international stocks. 50% is
conservative, but appropriate for a conservative retired guy. The Dow Jones US Completion Index (all stocks except the S&P 500 – the “S” fund in the TSP) remains ahead of the S&P 500. Since 1 February it is 2.6% ahead of the S&P 500. Since 1 March the Euro-Pacific ETF (EFA) (“I”-fund) is 2.5% ahead of the S&P 500.
THRIFT SAVINGS PLAN (TSP) MEMBERS CHANGE
Friday, I am reducing my S-fund allocation slightly and increasing the I-fund a commensurate amount as follows:
My new TSP Allocation: 50%-G; 10%-C; 20%-S; 20%-I. (50% cash is too high for non-retirees,
however, the “G”-fund did return 2.2% over the last 12-months and that is exceptional
for risk-free money.)
