From the FED Report: “The November 2015 Empire State Manufacturing Survey indicates that business activity declined for a fourth consecutive month for New York manufacturers. The headline general business conditions index was little changed at -10.7.” Commentary at…
http://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/commentaries/Empire-Manufacturing-Update.php
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION (MarketWatch)
“Industrial production fell 0.2% in October but the details looked better, according to data released by the Federal Reserve…” Story at…
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/industrial-production-down-02-in-october-but-details-look-better-2015-11-17
QUIET US PORTS [SUGGEST] SLOWDOWN (WSJ)
“Combined, imports at the container terminals at the ports of Los Angeles, Long Beach, Calif. and around New York harbor, which handle just over half of the goods entering the country by sea, fell by just over 10% between August and October.” Story at…
http://www.wsj.com/articles/quiet-u-s-ports-spark-slowdown-fears-1447583406
My cmt: A 10% reduction is huge given that we are now in a seasonal period when imports are the highest.
ASSET ALLOCATION: 100% STOCKS (Marketwatch)
“I recently wrote an article for USA Today about asset allocation strategies and the rather antiquated notion of a 60% stocks/40% bonds portfolio…I interviewed several financial experts who advocated a heavy allocation in stocks — including as much as 100% of your portfolio — even if you're in your 40s.” Story at…
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-100-of-your-investment-portfolio-should-be-in-stocks-2015-11-11
My cmt: I agree, with one important caveat. There is a time to be 100% in stocks - after a market crash, not now. 100%-stocks at, or near, the top? The only guy making money is the broker who sold you those stocks on commission.
BEARISH CALL FROM LOWRY RESEARCH (Financial Sense)
“…Lowry’s measures do not provide a bullish outlook on the stock market…Even with the recent rally, “you would expect supply to dry up…along with a rise in demand,” Dickson [Senior Market Analyst at Lowry Research] said. Instead, just the opposite occurred, which indicates to them that we experienced a "rebound rally" that is unlikely to propel stocks much higher, noting the possibility that a major trend change may have been seen in August.” Story at…
http://www.financialsense.com/contributors/richard-dickson/technician-sticking-bearish-call
CORRECTION COMING – BLACKSTONE GROUP (CNBC)
“Blackstone President and COO Tony James said Tuesday stock market valuations are ahead of themselves, and a correction is coming.” Story at…
https://www.google.com/?gws_rd=ssl
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Tuesday, the S&P 500 was down about 0.1% to 2050 at the close.
-VIX was rose about 4% to 18.84.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury slipped to 2.26.
The S&P 500 Index broke 1pt above the 200-dMA very briefly in the morning, but it couldn’t hold there. The index finished 0.7% below the 200-dMA.
My guess is that the market moves generally down. It may retest the August low of 1868. Other support levels follow: The 50-dMA on the S&P 500 is 2008. A 50% down retracement would put the market at about 1990. The chart looks like an important level is around 1930-1940. All of those levels should be watched for a possible buy signal.
While I am bearish in the long term, it is possible that the markets could bounce up and make a run at new-highs. I will have a better idea about that if there is a retest of the 1868 level.
MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
The 10-day moving average of the percentage of stocks advancing (NYSE) fell to 41.3% Tuesday vs. 43.4% Monday. (A number below 50% is usually BAD news for the markets. On a longer term, the 150-day moving average of advancing stocks slipped to 48.9%. (Lowry Research considers the 150-day advance decline time frame to be a critical measure of longer-term, market health.) A value below 50% indicates a down trend.
The McClellan Oscillator (a Breadth measure) remained negative Tuesday; but the advance/decline Index is now “oversold”.
New-lows outpaced New-highs Tuesday. The spread (new-highs minus new-lows) was minus-94. (It was -111 Monday.) The 10-day moving average of the change in spread remained minus-18 Monday. In other words, over the last 10-days, on average; the spread has decreased by 18 each day. The internals remained negative on the markets.
NTSM
Tuesday, the NTSM long term indicator was HOLD. The Price indicator is positive. VIX and Sentiment are neutral. Volume is negative.
TSP (RETIREMENT ACCOUNT – GOV EMPLOYEES) ALLOCATION
All cash: G-Fund (Cash, risk-free yielding 2.1% over the last 12-months): 100%
I made a rather impulsive decision. For my reasons (or lack of reason) see “My Invested Stock Position” in my prior blog at...
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/2015/11/factset-earnings-cass-freight-index.html
There have been enough major top indicators recently to warrant more caution than usual.
One needn’t be “all-out” to be well protected. For example: With 30% invested in the stock market, one would only lose 15% of the portfolio if the market were to be cut in half; one would have plenty to invest at the bottom and 30% in stocks hedges the bet if the markets go up.
