“The October jobs report left little doubt the U.S. labor market is back with a vengeance after a two-month lull. The 271,000 gain in payrolls was the biggest this year and exceeded all estimates in a Bloomberg survey of economists…” Story at…
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-11-06/payrolls-in-u-s-climb-most-this-year-as-jobless-rate-reaches-5-
OBAMA SAYS NO TO KEYSTONE PIPELINE - HE PREFERS RAIL TO PIPELINES….REALLY????
Crude Oil Train Burns near Charleston, West Virginia (16 Feb 2015)
BTW: These rail cars had been upgraded to the latest safety standards and the train was traveling below the speed limit.
CURRENTLY A HUGE SHORTAGE OF OIL PIPELINES (my headline) (Yahoo.com)
“Rail shipments of crude have increased from 9,500 carloads in 2008 to more than 435,000 in 2013, driven by a boom in the Bakken oil patch of North Dakota and Montana. Limited pipeline capacity there forces about 70 percent of the crude to reach refineries by rail, according to American Fuel and Petrochemical Manufacturers.”
http://news.yahoo.com/west-virginia-train-derailment-sends-oil-tanker-river-204306095.html
Frankly, the above story is a reason I have problems with a large part of the environmental movement. In their opposition, there is no logic, no reasoning, and no analysis. The environmental movement says the Keystone pipeline will contribute to Global Warming. Not likely – the oil will get to market regardless. The oil will be shipped in other ways that are more costly, dangerous, and environmentally unacceptable. Not only does it take fossil fuels to haul the rail cars, but train tracks often follow the rivers and accidents almost always cause significant water pollution. Federal data shows that in 2013 over a million gallons of crude oil was spilled in railcar accidents. Further…
“The federal government predicts that trains hauling crude oil or ethanol will derail an average of 10 times a year over the next two decades, causing more than $4 billion in damage and possibly killing hundreds of people if an accident happens in a densely populated part of the U.S.” (AP) Story…http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/U/US_OIL_TRAINS_SAFETY?SITE=VANOV&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT#_ga=1.225076826.1727190244.1424651550
The US loses taxes from jobs (construction, maintenance, and refineries) and pipeline fees. Our deficits in this country are already a disaster so cancelling Keystone misses an opportunity for increased tax revenue. To summarize, there will be no reduction in fossil fuel use because Canada will ship the oil overseas at a greater cost to them. We lose; Canada loses; and there is no reduction in Global Warming – only a political statement. I hate ALL politicians. (The Republicans are crazy too – just in different ways.)
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Friday, the S&P 500 was down about a pt. to 2099 at the close.
-VIX was down about 5% to 14.33.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury bounced up to 2.33%.
Today was a confused day. Both the Dow and Nasdaq were up better than 0.25% while the S&P 500 was unchanged. The S&P 500 internals provided more confusion to the picture; only 38% of stocks on the NYSE advanced today. That usually means a down day will follow (on the S&P 500) since the Index usually follows the trend of the other stocks. Today, the trend was clearly down on the NYSE so look for a down day Monday. VIX (S&P 500) was down 5% on an unchanged day. That’s not normal either for a day that was flat. The options boys are pointing up. New-lows outpaced new-highs today; that is not a good sign for the bulls. To summarize: confusion reigns.
My guess is that the market moves down over the next couple of weeks. That’s far from certain at this point. Everyone says the market is going down because we are following a 2011 scenario. “Everyone” is usually wrong. I do know one thing – fundamentally, there is a lot more wrong with the markets now than there were in 2011.
MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
The 10-day moving average of the percentage of stocks advancing (NYSE) dropped to 50.3% Friday vs. 52.4% Thursday. (A number above 50% is usually GOOD news for the markets. On a longer term, the 50-day moving average of advancing stocks dipped to 52.4%. The 100-dMA of advancing stocks remained slightly below 50%. The McClellan Oscillator (a Breadth measure) switched to negative Friday.
New-highs outpaced New-lows Friday. The spread (new-highs minus new-lows) was minus-21. (It was +26 Thursday.) The 10-day moving average of the change in spread was -8 Friday. In other words, over the last 10-days, on average; the spread has decreased by 8 each day. The internals remained neutral on the markets, but just barely.
Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of
current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading.
They are usually right, but they are often late. They are most useful when they diverge from
the Index. In 2014, using these
internals alone would have made a 9% return vs. 13% for the S&P 500 (in on
Positive, out on Negative – no shorting).
Of course, few trend-following systems will do well in an extreme low-volatility,
nearly straight-up year like 2014.
NTSM
Friday, the NTSM long term indicator was BUY. Price and VIX indicators are positive. Volume and Sentiment are neutral. I am not following this guidance for the time being; I am waiting for a better entry point. I am getting tired of repeating this, but a pullback may be in the works.
I will wait
before increasing stock holdings; I think there will be a better entry point.
MY INVESTED STOCK POSITION:
TSP (RETIREMENT ACCOUNT – GOV EMPLOYEES) ALLOCATION
G-Fund (Cash, risk-free yielding 2.1% over the last 12-months): 70%
C-Fund (S&P 500): 15%
I-Fund (EFA): 15%
