“The Commerce Department on Tuesday said the nation's gross domestic product grew at a 2.1 percent annual pace, not the 1.5 percent rate it reported last month, as businesses reduced an inventory bloat less aggressively than previously believed.” Story at…http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/11/24/us-gdp-usa-idUSKBN0TD1M520151124#78L0GM3Ho9IRspbL.97
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE (Advisor Perspectives)
“The latest Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index … headline number of 90.4 was a plunge from the October final reading of 99.1, which is an upward revision from 97.6. Today's number was below the Investing.com forecast of 99.5 and the lowest reading in 15 months.” Story at…
http://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/Conference-Board-Consumer-Confidence-Index.php
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Tuesday, the S&P 500 was up about 0.1% to 2089 at the close.
-VIX rose about 2% to 15.93.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury dipped to 2.24.
The Index is 1.3% above the 200-dMA. Most indicators are positive, but the chart is not giving me much confidence. I have been researching tops and bottoms so I have a lot more tools for calling bottoms. Exact tops are not easy to call. The S&P 500 is clearly in a topping pattern, but that may ebb and flow for considerable time. When I look back at the higher low in September (the retest of the August low) I see no confirmation for an all-clear signal. There was a volume reversal, that would be an indication for a short term buy, but there was never a lower low. I’ll just have to watch the market for further clues. In the future I think a better tactic would be to play the shorter term moves.
MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
The 10-day moving average of the percentage of stocks advancing (NYSE) rose to 50.7% Tuesday vs. 50.6% Monday. (A number above 50% is usually GOOD news for the markets. On a longer term, the 150-day moving average of advancing stocks dipped to 49.1%. A value below 50% indicates a down trend.
The McClellan Oscillator (a Breadth measure) remained positive Tuesday.
New-lows outpaced New-highs Tuesday. The spread (new-highs minus new-lows) was minus-20. (It was -39 Monday.) The 10-day moving average of the change in spread was +4 Tuesday. In other words, over the last 10-days, on average; the spread has increased by 4 each day. The internals remained positive on the markets.
Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of
current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading.
They are usually right, but they are often late. They are most useful when they diverge from
the Index. In 2014, using these
internals alone would have made a 9% return vs. 13% for the S&P 500 (in on
Positive, out on Negative – no shorting).
Of course, few trend-following systems will do well in an extreme
low-volatility, nearly straight-up year like 2014.
NTSM
Tuesday, the NTSM long term indicator was BUY. The Price & VIX indicators are positive. Sentiment and Volume indicators are neutral. I remain skeptical that this is a good time to get in. My prior blog posts explain the reasoning.
MY INVESTED STOCK POSITION:
TSP (RETIREMENT ACCOUNT – GOV EMPLOYEES) ALLOCATIONAll cash: G-Fund (Cash, risk-free yielding 2.1% over the last 12-months): 100%
I made a rather impulsive decision. For my reasons (or lack of reason) see “My Invested Stock Position” in my prior blog at...
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/2015/11/factset-earnings-cass-freight-index.html
There have been enough major top indicators recently to warrant more caution than usual.
One needn’t be “all-out” to be well protected if there is a bear market. For example: With 30% invested in the stock market, one would only lose 15% of the portfolio if the market were to be cut in half; one would have plenty to invest at the bottom and 30% in stocks hedges the bet if the markets go up.
I am considering increasing stock-investments, but I’d like to see more price movement before the end of the month.
