“The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits
unexpectedly fell last week, suggesting a rapid tightening of the labor market
that bolsters expectations the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates next
week…Initial claims for state unemployment benefits slipped 2,000 to a
seasonally adjusted 236,000 for the week ended Dec. 2…” Story at…
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Thursday the S&P 500 was up about 0.3% to 2637.
-VIX was down about 8% to 11.16. (The Options Boys don’t
believe a correction is brewing.)
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 2.363%.
The aircraft carrier of indicators is the new-high
new-low data. It is very slow to shift direction so it can be a canary in the
coal mine for sniffing out a downturn. New highs outpaced new-lows today, but
on a %-basis the 10-day and 40-day moving averages are falling. At this point,
I’ll watch the daily new-highs vs.new-lows.
If the new-lows outpace the new-highs we will be a little more worried.
My sum of 17 Indicators remained -2 on the day and was
down on a longer-term basis too. Bottom line: not much change from yesterday. (A “-” number means there are more bearish
indicators than bullish.)
I don’t expect much of a pullback – probably in the 3-5%
range – but these things can get out of hand should we have some bad news. With
the Politicians rattling their cages, that’s a possibility.
All in all, I am leaning bearish in the short-term, but I
wouldn’t short this market unless we see some more compelling evidence of a
correction. I remain bullish longer
term.
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then
ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF. While momentum isn’t stock performance per
se, momentum is closely related to stock performance. For example, over the 4-months
from Oct thru mid-February 2016, the number 1 ranked Financials (XLF) outperformed
the S&P 500 by nearly 20%.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see
NTSM Page at…
Financials (XLF) was #1. The markets look a bit strained
so perhaps I’ll get a better buying opportunity. I’ll wait before adding any positions.
(I hold XLK, DVY and SPY.)
TODAY’S RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked stock receives 100%. The rest are then
ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading stock.
Walmart (WMT) took over sole possession of #1. (I hold
Intel.)
Avoid GE and Merck. Their 120-day moving averages are
falling.
*I rank the Dow 30 similarly to the ETF ranking system.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
Intel is down 4.8% since I bought it 31 Oct 2017. This is a risk of a momentum strategy. The
hottest stock can get identified after an earnings surprise and the stock has
already moved. The momentum then slows
and profit taking follows. I am going to
hold Intel because I think buying will pick up again if they are able to keep
up earnings growth. In addition, its PE is a low 15.4 vs the average DOW PE of
25 as of the end of October. The Yield on the S&P 500 (SPY) is 1.9% while
the Dividend for Intel is 2.3%. I think it is worth holding.
SHORT-TERM TRADING PORTFOLIO - 2017 (Small-% of the
total portfolio)
My shorting rule is as follows:
-“In a bull market, you can only be long or
neutral.” – D. Gartman
-“The best policy
is to avoid shorting unless a major bear market is underway and downside momentum
has been thoroughly established. Even then, your timing must sometimes be
perfect. In a bull market the trend is truly your friend, and trading against
the grain is usually a fool's errand.” – Clif Droke.
-“Commandment #1: “Thou Shall Not Trade Against the Trend.” - James P. Arthur Huprich
THURSDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
Market Internals
remained Neutral on the market. (Market Internals are based on a package of
internals and all must be positive to create a positive indication.
Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of
current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading.
They are usually right, but they are often late. They are most useful when they diverge from
the Index. In 2014, using these internals
alone would have made a 9% return vs. 13% for the S&P 500 (in on Positive,
out on Negative – no shorting).
LONG TERM INDICATOR
Thursday, Price indicator was positive; Sentiment, Volume & VIX
indicators were neutral. With VIX recently below 10 for a couple of
days in May, June, July, August, September, October and now November, VIX may
be prone to incorrect signals. Usually, a rising VIX is a bad market sign; now
it may move up, but that might just signal normalization of VIX, i.e., VIX and
the Index may both rise. As an indicator, VIX is out of the picture for a
while.
MY INVESTED STOCK POSITION:
TSP (RETIREMENT ACCOUNT – GOV EMPLOYEES) ALLOCATION
I increased
stock allocation to 50% stocks in the S&P 500 Index fund (C-Fund) 24 March
2017 in my long-term accounts, based on short-term indicators. The remainder
is 50% G-Fund (Government securities). This is a conservative retiree
allocation, but I consider it fully invested for my situation.
