"We're still overweight stocks at the expense of
bonds and we really do expect to hold that positioning at least until the end
of the year before we would potentially downshift to neutral," Tepper told
CNBC's "Trading
Nation" on Thursday. "Our research says
absolutely no recession until 2020, so it does make sense to stay overweight
stocks right now." Story at…
INTEL (CNBC)
“Shares of the
chipmaker slid 2.38 percent on Thursday after Krzanich [CEO] resigned, effective immediately,
for having what the company called a "consensual relationship with an
Intel employee"…"What matters to me is that the stock is now too
cheap to be ignored because at the same time they released [the] Krzanich
[news], they also told you that business was better than expected thanks to
strong growth across all segments," the host of "Mad Money" [Jim Cramer] said Thursday. "The stock looks
good to me." Story at…
My cmt: The PE for Intel is 22.8. The Dow 30 PE was 24.2
according to Birinyi Associates.
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Friday the S&P 500 was up about 0.2% to 2755.
-VIX dipped about 6% to 13.77.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury slipped slightly to
2.893%.
My daily sum of 17 Indicators was unchanged at -6, while
the 10-day smoothed version dropped from -7 to -18. A number below zero shows
most indicators are bearish.
RSI (14-d,SMA) is a neutral 54; the Bollinger Band
indicator is neutral.
Breadth, measured as the % of stocks on the NYSE that
advanced over the last 10-days, improved a bit to 45.6%. (More stocks have been
going down over the last 2-weeks than have been going up.) This is bearish and
the market internals I track remain negative.
The most worrisome indicator right now remains the large
spread between the Cyclical Industrials (XLI-ETF) and the S&P 500. XLI is underperforming the S&P 500 on
every time frame I track. When investors are worried they sell cyclicals.
The chart looks ok now so I won’t be concerned about the
negative indicators for the time being.
My longer-term indicator system remained neutral. I
remain cautiously bullish.
MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF
15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then
ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF. While momentum isn’t stock performance per
se, momentum is closely related to stock performance. For example, over the 4-months
from Oct thru mid-February 2016, the number 1 ranked Financials (XLF) outperformed
the S&P 500 by nearly 20%. In 2017 Technology (XLK) was ranked in the top 3
Momentum Plays for 52% of all trading days in 2017 (if I counted correctly.)
XLK was up 35% on the year while the S&P 500 was up 18%.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see
NTSM Page at…
TODAY’S RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked stock receives 100%. The rest are then
ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading stock. (On 5 Apr 2018 I
corrected a coding/graphing error that had consistently shown Nike
incorrectly.)
*I rank the Dow 30 similarly to the ETF ranking system.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
FRIDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
Market Internals
remained Negative on the market.
Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of
current market action but should not be used alone for short term trading. They
are usually right, but they are often late.
They are most useful when they diverge from the Index. In 2014, using these internals alone would
have made a 9% return vs. 13% for the S&P 500 (in on Positive, out on
Negative – no shorting).
18 Apr 2018 I
increased stock investments from 35% to 50% based on the Intermediate/Long-Term
Indicator that turned positive on the 17th. (It has since turned Neutral.) For
me, fully invested is a balanced 50% stock portfolio. 50% is my minimum unless
I am in full defense mode.
On 10 May 2018 I
added stock positions to increase Stock investments to 58% based on more
evidence that the correction is over. This is high for me given that we are
late in this cycle (and as a retiree), but it indicates my bullishness after
the correction. I’ll sell these new positions quickly if the market turns down.
INTERMEDIATE / LONG-TERM INDICATOR
Intermediate/Long-Term
Indicator: Friday, the Price, Sentiment, VIX & Volume indicators were neutral.
Overall this is a NEUTRAL indication.
