“The Empire State manufacturing survey rose 4.9 points in
June to a reading of 25, the highest since October, the New York Fed said
Friday.” Story at…
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION (MarketWatch)
"Industrial production fell in May for the first time in
four months, but the drop-off was largely the result of a major fire at an
auto-parts supplier for Ford F, -0.08%trucks instead any weakness
in the U.S. economy.” Story at…
CONSUMER SENTIMENT (CNBC)
“The index rose to its highest level since hitting 101.4
in March.” Story at…
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Friday the S&P 500 slipped about 0.1% to 2780.
-VIX was dropped about 1% to 11.98.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury slipped to 2.920%.
My daily sum of 17 Indicators declined slightly from -1
to -2, while the 10-day smoothed version dropped from +39 to +33. A number
above zero shows most indicators are bullish. Overall not much change from
yesterday, but a number of the indicators have stalled and appear to be rolling
over to the downside.
My longer-term indicator system remains bullish and I
remain a bull. Short-term, the deterioration in indicators is worrisome and we’ll
take a closer look at indicators next week.
MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF
15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then
ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF. While momentum isn’t stock performance per
se, momentum is closely related to stock performance. For example, over the 4-months
from Oct thru mid-February 2016, the number 1 ranked Financials (XLF) outperformed
the S&P 500 by nearly 20%. In 2017 Technology (XLK) was ranked in the top 3
Momentum Plays for 52% of all trading days in 2017 (if I counted correctly.)
XLK was up 35% on the year while the S&P 500 was up 18%.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see
NTSM Page at…
TODAY’S RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked stock receives 100%. The rest are then
ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading stock. (On 5 Apr 2018 I
corrected a coding/graphing error that had consistently shown Nike
incorrectly.)
*I rank the Dow 30 similarly to the ETF ranking system.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
THURSDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
Market Internals
remained Neutral on the market.
Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of
current market action but should not be used alone for short term trading. They
are usually right, but they are often late.
They are most useful when they diverge from the Index. In 2014, using these internals alone would
have made a 9% return vs. 13% for the S&P 500 (in on Positive, out on
Negative – no shorting).
18 Apr 2018 I
increased stock investments from 35% to 50% based on the Intermediate/Long-Term
Indicator that turned positive on the 17th. (It has since turned Neutral.) For
me, fully invested is a balanced 50% stock portfolio. 50% is my minimum unless
I am in full defense mode.
On 10 May 2018 I
added stock positions to increase Stock investments to 58% based on more
evidence that the correction is over. This is high for me given that we are
late in this cycle (and as a retiree), but it indicates my bullishness after
the correction. I’ll sell these new positions quickly if the market turns down.
INTERMEDIATE / LONG-TERM INDICATOR
Intermediate/Long-Term
Indicator: Friday, the Price & VIX indicators were positive; the
Sentiment & Volume indicators were neutral. Overall this is a BULLISH
indication.
