“The U.S. economy expanded in the first quarter at a
slower pace than previously estimated, reflecting downward revisions to
spending on services and to inventory investment, according to Commerce
Department data released Thursday…. Gross domestic product increased at a 2%
annualized rate (est. 2.2%), revised from previous est. of 2.2%.” Story at…
JOBLESS CLAIMS (Marketwatch)
“Initial jobless claims climbed by 9,000 to 227,000 in
the week ended June 23.
That exceeded the 220,000 estimate of economists polled
by MarketWatch, but claims are still near the lowest level in half a century.”
Story at…
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Thursday the S&P 500 was up about 0.6% to 2716.
-VIX dipped about 6% to 16.85.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 2.84%.
My daily sum of 17 Indicators slipped from -5 to -7,
while the 10-day smoothed version dropped from -51 to -57. The good news is
that the 10-day version has slowed its decline. A number below zero shows most
indicators are bearish.
I won’t go thru the indicators, but here are a few key
ones:
The Bollinger Band indicator and RSI (14-d,SMA) were both
very close to oversold, a bullish sign.
The % of stocks advancing is improving faster than the S&P
500 and that’s a bullish sign.
The S&P 500 closed on the 50-dMA today so we’ll have
to wait longer to see where the market is headed. I’m guessing up, but I have
been an optimist lately and only time will tell if I am right. We still have a lot of negative indicators.
My longer-term indicator system remained neutral. I
remain cautiously bullish.
MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF
15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then
ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF. While momentum isn’t stock performance per
se, momentum is closely related to stock performance. For example, over the 4-months
from Oct thru mid-February 2016, the number 1 ranked Financials (XLF) outperformed
the S&P 500 by nearly 20%. In 2017 Technology (XLK) was ranked in the top 3
Momentum Plays for 52% of all trading days in 2017 (if I counted correctly.)
XLK was up 35% on the year while the S&P 500 was up 18%.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see
NTSM Page at…
TODAY’S RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked stock receives 100%. The rest are then
ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading stock. (On 5 Apr 2018 I
corrected a coding/graphing error that had consistently shown Nike
incorrectly.)
*I rank the Dow 30 similarly to the ETF ranking system.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
I still have GE in my DOW 30 chart. I’ll have to update my calculations to delete
GE and add Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA) since it has replaced GE in the DOW
30. WBA is best known for operating Walgreens drug stores.
THURSDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
Market Internals improved
to Neutral on the market.
Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of
current market action but should not be used alone for short term trading. They
are usually right, but they are often late.
They are most useful when they diverge from the Index. In 2014, using these internals alone would
have made a 9% return vs. 13% for the S&P 500 (in on Positive, out on
Negative – no shorting).
18 Apr 2018 I
increased stock investments from 35% to 50% based on the Intermediate/Long-Term
Indicator that turned positive on the 17th. (It has since turned Neutral.) For
me, fully invested is a balanced 50% stock portfolio. 50% is my minimum unless
I am in full defense mode.
On 10 May 2018 I
added stock positions to increase Stock investments to 58% based on more
evidence that the correction is over. This is high for me given that we are
late in this cycle (and as a retiree), but it indicates my bullishness after
the correction. I’ll sell these new positions quickly if the market turns down.
INTERMEDIATE / LONG-TERM INDICATOR
Intermediate/Long-Term
Indicator: Thursday, the VIX, Price, Sentiment & Volume indicators were
neutral. Overall this is a NEUTRAL indication.
