CFNAI (Chicago Fed)
“The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) edged
down to –0.29 in February from –0.25 in January. Two of the four broad
categories of indicators that make up the index decreased from January, and
three of the four categories made negative contributions to the index in
February. The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, moved down to
–0.18 in February from a neutral reading in January.” – Chicago FED.
Commentary and charts from Chicago FED at the following
(click on “Latest CNFAI Release)…
My cmt: CFNAI is below zero, but not at recession levels.
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Wednesday the S&P 500 fell about 0.5% to 2805.
-VIX rose about 3% to 15.15.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury dropped to 2.375%.
My daily sum of 20 Indicators improved from -4 to -1 (a
positive number is bullish; negatives are bearish) while the 10-day smoothed
version that negates the daily fluctuations dropped from +33 to +23. Most of
these indicators are short-term.
Bear signs still remain. I remain in the Bear camp, at least in the near-term. I think the markets will fall from
here, but the chart will tell us. A final break higher through resistance will
finally get me to increase my stock holdings.
MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF
15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then
ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF. While momentum isn’t stock performance per
se, momentum is closely related to stock performance. For example, over the
4-months from Oct thru mid-February 2016, the number 1 ranked Financials (XLF)
outperformed the S&P 500 by nearly 20%. In 2017 Technology (XLK) was ranked
in the top 3 Momentum Plays for 52% of all trading days in 2017 (if I counted
correctly.) XLK was up 35% on the year while the S&P 500 was up 18%.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see
NTSM Page at…
TODAY’S RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked stock receives 100%. The rest are then
ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading stock.
*I rank the Dow 30 similarly to the ETF ranking system.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
WEDNESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
Market Internals remained
NEUTRAL on the market.
Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of
current market action but should not be used alone for short term trading. They
are usually right, but they are often late.
They are most useful when they diverge from the Index. In 2014, using these internals alone would
have made a 9% return vs. 13% for the S&P 500 (in on Positive, out on
Negative – no shorting).
My current stock allocation is about 30% invested in
stocks as of 9 January 2019.
INTERMEDIATE / LONG-TERM INDICATOR
Wednesday, the
PRICE and VIX indicators were positive. The VOLUME and SENTIMENT indicators
were neutral. Overall this is a BULLISH indication.
