FOMC RATE DECISION (CNBC)
“The central bank says it will complete its balance sheet
roll-off program at the end of the September. The Fed also reduced expectations
in GDP growth and inflation and a bump higher in the unemployment rate outlook…there
now appears to be no likelihood of a hike unless conditions change
significantly. In its post-meeting statement, the FOMC indicated it would
remain “patient” before adopting any further increases.” Story at…
Oh…and they left rates unchanged.
CRUDE OIL INVENTORIES (OIlPrice.com)
“A day after API’s estimate of
another weekly crude oil inventory draw in a row sent WTI higher, the Energy
Information Administration confirmed a
large draw, at 9.6 million barrels for the week to March 15. The authority said
crude oil inventories stood at 439.5 million barrels at March 15, slightly
below the average for the season.” Story at…
FED EX WARNS WORLD ECONOMY SLOWING(CNBC)
“’Slowing international macroeconomic conditions and
weaker global trade growth trends continue, as seen in the year-over-year
decline in our FedEx Express international revenue,’ says Alan B. Graf, Jr.,
FedEx Corp. executive vice president and chief financial officer. FedEx reported
weaker-than-expected third-quarter earnings and revenue after the closing bell
on Tuesday, and cut full-year guidance.” Story at…
ATA (American Trucking Assoc)
“American Trucking Associations’ advanced seasonally
adjusted (SA) For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index was down 0.2% in February after
increasing 2.5% in January…’After a strong January, I’m a pleasantly surprised
that the index didn’t fall much last month,’ said ATA Chief Economist Bob
Costello. ‘I continue to expect tonnage to moderate like other
indicators, including retail sales, manufacturing activity and housing starts.
Additionally, the level of inventories throughout the supply chain have
increased, which is a drag on truck freight.’…Compared with February 2018, the
SA index increased 5.4%...” Press release at…
My cmt: So far, it looks like a dip, but no recession
yet.
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Wednesday the S&P 500 was down about 0.3% to 2824.
-VIX rose about 4% to 13.91.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury dropped to 2.533% as
bonds rallied due to the Fed’s further announcement that rates are not likely
to be raised this year.
Yesterday I noted that the XLI is slowing and cautioned
that indicator suggested trouble for the overall market. Perhaps not. Boeing is
the largest holding of the XLI-ETF and it makes up 10% of its assets. Boeing’s
troubles are pulling down the XLI so XLI underperformance should probably be
ignored for now.
Today we were chart watching in between running errands. There
was a big bounce up at the Fed announcement, but markets were unable to hold
the highs around 2844 on the S&P 500.
The Index dropped from about 3pm through the close.
Again, Bollinger Bands were nearly oversold. RSI is
neutral. I like to use these indicators together so this isn’t really a very
strong negative for now.
My Breadth vs. the S&P 500 indicator remains in
neutral position.
On the bullish side, MACD made a bullish crossover yesterday
and Money Trend remains positive; Late day action was negative today, but the longer-term
version of this indicator has turned up. This would indicate that Pros are beginning
to buy, or at least they are holding positions overnight.
My daily sum of 20 Indicators slipped from +9 to +7 (a
positive number is bullish; negatives are bearish) while the 10-day smoothed
version that negates the daily fluctuations improved from +21 to +30. This is
bullish.
I put resistance at about 2815-2820. We’ve seen about 3
closes just barely above that level, but with a little bit more retracement the
Index will once again be lower.
I still haven’t managed to increase my percentage of
stock investments. Further bullish moves
in the S&P 500, comfortably above 2820, will force me to buy stocks.
MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF
15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then
ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF. While momentum isn’t stock performance per
se, momentum is closely related to stock performance. For example, over the
4-months from Oct thru mid-February 2016, the number 1 ranked Financials (XLF)
outperformed the S&P 500 by nearly 20%. In 2017 Technology (XLK) was ranked
in the top 3 Momentum Plays for 52% of all trading days in 2017 (if I counted
correctly.) XLK was up 35% on the year while the S&P 500 was up 18%.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see
NTSM Page at…
TODAY’S RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked stock receives 100%. The rest are then
ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading stock.
*I rank the Dow 30 similarly to the ETF ranking system.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
WEDNESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
Market Internals remained
POSITIVE on the market.
Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of
current market action but should not be used alone for short term trading. They
are usually right, but they are often late.
They are most useful when they diverge from the Index. In 2014, using these internals alone would
have made a 9% return vs. 13% for the S&P 500 (in on Positive, out on
Negative – no shorting).
My current stock allocation is about 30% invested in
stocks on as of 9 January 2019. For me, fully invested is a balanced 50% stock
portfolio so this is a very conservative position.
INTERMEDIATE / LONG-TERM INDICATOR
Wednesday, the
PRICE and VIX indicators were positive. The VOLUME and SENTIMENT indicators
were neutral. Overall this is a BULLISH indication. I remain defensive for the
time being depending on market action.
