JOBLESS CLAIMS (Reuters)
“The number of Americans filing applications for
unemployment benefits unexpectedly fell last week, suggesting labor market
conditions remained solid, despite slowing job growth.
Initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped
5,000 to a seasonally adjusted 211,000 for the week ended March 23…” Story at…
GDP (Reuters)
“The U.S. economy slowed more than initially thought in
the fourth quarter, keeping growth in 2018 below the Trump administration’s 3
percent annual target, and corporate profits failed to rise for the first time
in more than two years. Gross domestic product increased at a 2.2 percent
annualized rate, the Commerce Department said on Thursday in its third reading
of fourth-quarter GDP growth.” Story at…
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Thursday the S&P 500 rose about 0.4% to 2815.
-VIX dropped about 5% to 14.43.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury dropped to 2.396%.
Over the last 10-days 52% of the total volume on the NYSE
has been up-volume and 54% of stocks have advanced (a measure of breadth). Those
are decent numbers, but there is a concern for the bulls; the graph of both are
falling. That’s a bearish sign until we see a reversal. Money Trend, New-high/new-low
spreads and MACD are bearish.
My daily sum of 20 Indicators slipped from -1 to -2 (a
positive number is bullish; negatives are bearish) while the 10-day smoothed
version that negates the daily fluctuations dropped from +23 to +18. Most of
these indicators are short-term.
Bear signs still remain, but none are extreme so we have
to say indicators remain bearish, but not with a lot of conviction. I remain in
the Bear camp, at least in the short-term.
MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF
15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then
ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF. While momentum isn’t stock performance per
se, momentum is closely related to stock performance. For example, over the
4-months from Oct thru mid-February 2016, the number 1 ranked Financials (XLF)
outperformed the S&P 500 by nearly 20%. In 2017 Technology (XLK) was ranked
in the top 3 Momentum Plays for 52% of all trading days in 2017 (if I counted
correctly.) XLK was up 35% on the year while the S&P 500 was up 18%.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see
NTSM Page at…
TODAY’S RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked stock receives 100%. The rest are then
ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading stock.
*I rank the Dow 30 similarly to the ETF ranking system.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
THURSDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
Market Internals
remained NEUTRAL on the market.
Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of
current market action but should not be used alone for short term trading. They
are usually right, but they are often late.
They are most useful when they diverge from the Index. In 2014, using these internals alone would
have made a 9% return vs. 13% for the S&P 500 (in on Positive, out on
Negative – no shorting).
My current stock allocation is about 30% invested in
stocks as of 9 January 2019.
INTERMEDIATE / LONG-TERM INDICATOR
Thursday, the PRICE
indicator was positive. The VOLUME, VIX and SENTIMENT indicators were neutral.
Overall this is a NEUTRAL indication. The long-term indicator has been flopping
back and forth between a Bullish and Neutral indication. Long-term there’s some
weakness.
