JOBLESS CLAIMS (Bloomberg)
“Filings for U.S. unemployment benefits unexpectedly held
at a two-month high last week, possibly reflecting the late timing of this
year’s Easter holiday and spring vacations. Jobless claims were unchanged at
230,000 in the week ended April 27…” Story at…
PRODUCTIVITY (Reuters)
“U.S. worker productivity increased at its fastest pace
in more than four years in the first quarter, depressing labor costs and
suggesting inflation could remain benign for a while.” Story at…
FACTORY ORDERS (MarketWatch)
“Factory orders jumped in March after two straight
declines, the Commerce
Department said Thursday. Orders rose a seasonally adjusted 1.9%
after a revised 0.3% drop in February, the latest data show.” Story at…
THE FINE PEOPLE HOAX FUNNEL (Scott Adams Blog)
“I’ve been publicly debunking the “fine people” hoax
since 2017. The press created the hoax by consistently and intentionally
omitting the second half of President Trump’s comments about Charlottesville.
If you only see or hear the first half of what the president said, it looks
exactly like the president is calling neo-Nazis “fine people.” But in the
second part of Trump’s comments, he clarified, “You had people in that group
who were there to protest the taking down, of to them, a very, very important
statue and the renaming of the park from Robert E. Lee to another name.” In
other words, the president believed there were non-racists in attendance who
support keeping historical monuments.” Full commentary at…
My cmt: I thought of this because Biden has been hammering
Trump on the “fine people” comment. While we’re at it…Joe Biden said Wednesday,
“China is going to eat our lunch? Come on, man,”…“I mean, you know, they’re not
bad folks, folks. But guess what? They’re not competition for us…” No
competition? Good heavens! I think the Dems have found someone dumber than
Trump.
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Thursday the S&P 500 fell about 0.2% to 2918.
-VIX dropped about 3% to 14.42.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury was unchanged at 2.543%.
I wrote yesterday that even with the big jump down (Wednesday),
statistical analysis shows the market remains too calm and another big drop is
necessary to clear the indicator. Just to put this in perspective, statistical
analysis is predicting a one-day drop of 2% to 4% at some point within the month.
My daily sum of 20 Indicators dropped from +3 to -4 (a
positive number is bullish; negatives are bearish) while the 10-day smoothed
version that negates the daily fluctuations declined from +13 to +11. Most of
these indicators are short-term.
I still have a very low % invested in stocks – perhaps
this is the start of a buying opportunity? Let’s watch.
TOP / BOTTOM INDICATOR SCALE OF 1 TO 10
Today’s Reading: 0
Most Recent Day with a value other than Zero: -1 on 30
April (RSI was negative.)
(1) +10 Max Bullish / -10 Max Bearish)
(2) -4 or below is a Sell sign. +4 or better is a Buy
Sign.
NOTE: Topping
indicators are good at identifying a blow-off top with buyers in a frenzy. These indicators are not so good at identifying
a slow, rollover-top that can happen when buyers simply go on strike.
MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF
15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then
ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF. While momentum isn’t stock performance per
se, momentum is closely related to stock performance. For example, over the
4-months from Oct thru mid-February 2016, the number 1 ranked Financials (XLF)
outperformed the S&P 500 by nearly 20%. In 2017 Technology (XLK) was ranked
in the top 3 Momentum Plays for 52% of all trading days in 2017 (if I counted
correctly.) XLK was up 35% on the year while the S&P 500 was up 18%.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM
Page at…
TODAY’S RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked stock receives 100%. The rest are then
ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading stock.
*I rank the Dow 30 similarly to the ETF ranking system.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
THURSDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
Market Internals remained
NEUTRAL on the market.
Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of
current market action but should not be used alone for short term trading. They
are usually right, but they are often late.
They are most useful when they diverge from the Index. In 2014, using these internals alone would
have made a 9% return vs. 13% for the S&P 500 (in on Positive, out on
Negative – no shorting).
I ran the numbers for 2018. Using the Short-term
indicator would have made a 5% gain instead of a 6% loss for buy-and-hold. The
methodology was Buy on a POSITIVE indication and Sell on a NEGATIVE indication
and stay out until the next POSITIVE indication. The back-test included 13-buys
and 13-sells, or a trade every 2-weeks on average.
My current stock allocation is about 30% invested in
stocks as of 9 January 2019. I sold the rally about half way up expecting a
retest of the lows Dec 2018.
INTERMEDIATE / LONG-TERM INDICATOR
Thursday, PRICE, VIX, VOLUME, and SENTIMENT indicators
were neutral. Overall this is a NEUTRAL indication.
