SUPER RICH TIGER 21 RAISE CASH (Marketwatch))
“The 750 members of Tiger 21, a coalition of investors
with some $75 billion in assets, increased their cash holdings by 20% in the
first quarter, bringing the group’s total allocation to levels not seen since
the start of 2013.” Story at…
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Monday the S&P 500 dropped about 0.7% to 2840.
-VIX rose about 2% to 16.31.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury was unchanged a 2.420%.
My daily sum of 20 Indicators dropped from -11 to -12 (a
positive number is bullish; negatives are bearish) while the 10-day smoothed
version that negates the daily fluctuations dropped from -52 to -72. (These
numbers sometimes change after I post the blog based on data that comes in
late.) Most of these indicators are short-term - not much bullishness here.
The Smart Money via late day action (a variant of the
Hayes Indicator) showed some positive buying action late today, but longer-term,
the indicator is still headed down.
The 5-10-20 Timer system remains a sell signal. This simply
means that the 5-dEMA and the 10-dEMA have dropped below the 20-dEMA. This is a
decent indicator all by itself, but it is somewhat prone to whipsaw action.
I still have a very low % invested in stocks and I’m
looking for a buying point, but I remain bearish for the time being.
TOP / BOTTOM INDICATOR SCALE OF 1 TO 10
Today’s Reading: 0
Most Recent Day with a value other than Zero: +2 on 13
May (RSI & Bollinger Bands were bullish.)
(1) +10 Max Bullish / -10 Max Bearish)
(2) -4 or below is a Sell sign. +4 or better is a Buy
Sign.
NOTE: Topping
indicators are good at identifying a blow-off top with buyers in a frenzy. These indicators are not so good at
identifying a slow, rollover-top that can happen when buyers simply go on
strike.
MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF
15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then
ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF. While momentum isn’t stock performance per
se, momentum is closely related to stock performance. For example, over the
4-months from Oct thru mid-February 2016, the number 1 ranked Financials (XLF)
outperformed the S&P 500 by nearly 20%. In 2017 Technology (XLK) was ranked
in the top 3 Momentum Plays for 52% of all trading days in 2017 (if I counted
correctly.) XLK was up 35% on the year while the S&P 500 was up 18%.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see
NTSM Page at…
TODAY’S RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked stock receives 100%. The rest are then
ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading stock.
*I rank the Dow 30 similarly to the ETF ranking system.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
MONDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
Market Internals remained
NEGATIVE on the market at the close.
Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of
current market action but should not be used alone for short term trading. They
are usually right, but they are often late.
They are most useful when they diverge from the Index. In 2014, using these internals alone would
have made a 9% return vs. 13% for the S&P 500 (in on Positive, out on
Negative – no shorting).
Using the Short-term
indicator in 2018 in SPY would have made a 5% gain instead of a 6% loss for buy-and-hold. The
methodology was Buy on a POSITIVE indication and Sell on a NEGATIVE indication and
stay out until the next POSITIVE indication. The back-test included 13-buys and
13-sells, or a trade every 2-weeks on average.
My current stock allocation is about 30% invested in
stocks as of 9 January 2019. I sold the rally about half way up expecting a
retest of the lows Dec 2018.
INTERMEDIATE / LONG-TERM INDICATOR
Monday, the Panic Indicator and the VOLUME indicators
were negative. VIX, PRICE and SENTIMENT indicators were neutral. Overall
this is a NEGATIVE / BEARISH indication.
