CONSUMER PRICE INDEX (CNBC)
“Consumer prices slowed in August, rising by a slight
0.1%, reflecting a big drop in the cost of gasoline and other energy products.”
Story at…
JOBLESS CLAIMS (MarketWatch)
“The number of people who applied for U.S. unemployment
benefits around Labor Day fell sharply to a nearly five-month low of 204,000,
an extremely low reading that was likely exaggerated by the holiday and
possibly Hurricane Dorian.” Story at…
OFF TOPIC – 9/11 TWIN TOWERS CONSPIRACY
The following is from ZeroHedge:
“How can
any of us continue to question everything 9/11 has brought us, but not question
9/11 itself?
On 9/11 2001 three steel-framed high-rise buildings
collapsed completely at near free-fall speed allegedly due to fires –
which, if true, makes them the only steel-framed high-rises in construction
history to have ever done this…The official explanation for this event is that
Muslim terrorists somehow confounded all the usual security procedures
and ‘attacked America’ because they ‘hated our freedoms.’”
It continues,
but I won’t.
My cmt:
Frankly, this is why I pay little attention to what I
read in ZeroHedge. It is frequently BS of the most abhorrent kind –
designed to foment hate and discontent. As a Professional Engineer with a
background in Structural Engineering, I am surprised that the conspiracy
theorists get credence anywhere for this kind of tripe. The author should go
back and watch the construction videos that showed the unique design that made
the twin towers susceptible to this type of collapse. The Towers were a
box-like construction with floors spanning across the box. It is a well-known
fact of material science that steel-frame buildings sag when heated by fire. (Oddly,
wood beams actually perform better.) Office materials couldn’t get hot enough? Yes,
they frequently do. In this case,
the fire was assisted by a few thousand pounds of jet fuel. Sagging steel led
to a pancake collapse, floor upon floor. There is no doubt – except for a few
whackos.
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Thursday the S&P 500 was up about 0.3% to 3010.
-VIX dipped about 3% to 14.18.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury increased to 1.773%.
My daily sum of 20 Indicators increased from +12
to +13 (a positive number is bullish; negatives are bearish) while the 10-day
smoothed version that negates the daily fluctuations improved from +49
to +62. (These numbers sometimes change after I post the blog based on data
that comes in late.)
I remain bullish.
TOP / BOTTOM INDICATOR SCALE OF 1 TO 10 (Zero is a
neutral reading.)
Today’s Reading: -1
-The Long-term Fosback Logic Index indicator was bearish,
but this indicator isn’t valid now because the McClellan Oscillator remains
positive.
- Most Recent Day with a value other than Zero: -1 on 12
September.
(1) +10 Max Bullish / -10 Max Bearish)
(2) -4 or below is a Sell sign. +4 or better is a Buy
Sign.
MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF
15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see
NTSM Page at…
TODAY’S RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked stock receives 100%. The rest are then
ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading stock.
*I rank the Dow 30 similarly to the ETF ranking system.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
Over the last 2 months, Apple is the biggest gainer, up
almost 10%. Home Depot, currently tops in momentum is up a little over 7%.
THURSDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
Market Internals remained
POSITIVE on the market.
Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of
current market action but should not be used alone for short term trading. They
are usually right, but they are often late.
They are most useful when they diverge from the Index. In 2014, using these internals alone would
have made a 9% return vs. 13% for the S&P 500 (in on Positive, out on
Negative – no shorting).
Using the Short-term indicator in 2018 in SPY would have
made a 5% gain instead of a 6% loss for buy-and-hold. The methodology was Buy
on a POSITIVE indication and Sell on a NEGATIVE indication and stay out until
the next POSITIVE indication. The back-test included 13-buys and 13-sells, or a
trade every 2-weeks on average.
My current stock allocation is about 55% invested in
stocks as of 20 August 2019. This is a conservative balanced position
appropriate for a retiree.
INTERMEDIATE / LONG-TERM INDICATOR
Thursday, the VOLUME indicator
was positive; VIX, SENTIMENT and PRICE Indicators were neutral. Overall, the
Long-Term Indicator remained to HOLD.
