FOMC RATE DECISION (CNBC)
“The Federal Reserve approved a much-anticipated
quarter-point interest rate cut Wednesday but offered few indications that
further reductions are ahead as members split on what to do next.” Story at…
HOUSING STARTS (Reuters)
“U.S. homebuilding surged to more than a 12-year high in
August as both single- and multi-family housing construction increased…” Story
at…
My cmt: No sign of recession here!
CRUDE INVENTORIES (OilPrice.com)
“Crude oil prices extended their decline today after the
Energy Information Administration reported a
crude oil inventory build of 1.1 million barrels.” Story at…
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Wednesday the S&P 500 rose about 1pt to 3007.
-VIX dipped about 3% to 13.95.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury slipped to 1.797%.
My daily sum of 20 Indicators slipped from +5 to
+2 (a positive number is bullish; negatives are bearish) while the 10-day
smoothed version that negates the daily fluctuations slipped from +79 to
+78. (These numbers sometimes change after I post the blog based on data that
comes in late.)
RSI gave another overbought reading today, but once
again, that is the only top indicator in play today.
Overall, I remain bullish.
TOP / BOTTOM INDICATOR SCALE OF 1 TO 10 (Zero is a
neutral reading.)
Today’s Reading: -1
-RSI was negative.
- Most Recent Day with a value other than Zero: -1 on 18
September.
(1) +10 Max Bullish / -10 Max Bearish)
(2) -4 or below is a Sell sign. +4 or better is a Buy
Sign.
MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF
15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see
NTSM Page at…
TODAY’S RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked stock receives 100%. The rest are then
ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading stock.
*I rank the Dow 30 similarly to the ETF ranking system.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
Over the last 2 months, Apple is the biggest gainer, up
almost 10%. Home Depot, currently tops in momentum is up a little over 7%.
WEDNESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
Market Internals
remained NEUTRAL on the market.
Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of
current market action but should not be used alone for short term trading. They
are usually right, but they are often late.
They are most useful when they diverge from the Index. In 2014, using these internals alone would
have made a 9% return vs. 13% for the S&P 500 (in on Positive, out on
Negative – no shorting).
Using the Short-term indicator in 2018 in SPY would have
made a 5% gain instead of a 6% loss for buy-and-hold. The methodology was Buy
on a POSITIVE indication and Sell on a NEGATIVE indication and stay out until
the next POSITIVE indication. The back-test included 13-buys and 13-sells, or a
trade every 2-weeks on average.
My current stock allocation is about 55% invested in
stocks as of 20 August 2019. This is a conservative balanced position
appropriate for a retiree.
INTERMEDIATE / LONG-TERM INDICATOR
Wednesday, the VOLUME, PRICE,
SENTIMENT and VIX Indicators were neutral. Overall, the Long-Term Indicator
remained HOLD.
