EMPIRE STATE MANUFACTURING (MarketWatch)
“The Empire State business conditions index fell 2.8
points to 2 in September, the New York Fed said Monday...Any reading above zero
indicates improving conditions.” Story at…
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Monday the S&P 500 was down about 0.3% to 2998.
-VIX rose about 7% to 14.67.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury slipped to 1.847%.
My daily sum of 20 Indicators decreased from +10
to +5 (a positive number is bullish; negatives are bearish) while the 10-day
smoothed version that negates the daily fluctuations improved from +70
to +71. (These numbers sometimes change after I post the blog based on data
that comes in late.)
We noted that Friday’s jump in RSI was as much about the
value of the S&P 500 15-days ago as it was Friday’s small move. Today, RSI
dipped to below the overbought point, but only slightly below. RSI is still very
nearly overbought.
Smart Money has been selling (based on late-day-action)
and that’s never a good sign, but there are still plenty of positive signs.
Most of the important indicators remain bullish: MACD of
the S&P 500 is bullish as is the MACD of Breadth. New-high/new-low data is
bullish for the most part.
I remain bullish.
TOP / BOTTOM INDICATOR SCALE OF 1 TO 10 (Zero is a
neutral reading.)
Today’s Reading: ZERO
-RSI was negative.
- Most Recent Day with a value other than Zero: -1 on 13
September.
(1) +10 Max Bullish / -10 Max Bearish)
(2) -4 or below is a Sell sign. +4 or better is a Buy
Sign.
MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF
15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see
NTSM Page at…
TODAY’S RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked stock receives 100%. The rest are then
ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading stock.
*I rank the Dow 30 similarly to the ETF ranking system.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
Over the last 2 months, Apple remains the biggest gainer, up
almost 9% as of 16 Sept. Home Depot, currently tops in momentum, is up 8.5%.
MONDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
Market Internals remained
NEUTRAL on the market.
Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of
current market action but should not be used alone for short term trading. They
are usually right, but they are often late.
They are most useful when they diverge from the Index. In 2014, using these internals alone would
have made a 9% return vs. 13% for the S&P 500 (in on Positive, out on
Negative – no shorting).
Using the Short-term indicator in 2018 in SPY would have
made a 5% gain instead of a 6% loss for buy-and-hold. The methodology was Buy
on a POSITIVE indication and Sell on a NEGATIVE indication and stay out until
the next POSITIVE indication. The back-test included 13-buys and 13-sells, or a
trade every 2-weeks on average.
My current stock allocation is about 55% invested in
stocks as of 20 August 2019. This is a conservative balanced position
appropriate for a retiree.
INTERMEDIATE / LONG-TERM INDICATOR
Monday, the PRICE indicator was
positive; SENTIMENT VOLUME and VIX Indicators were neutral. Overall, the
Long-Term Indicator dipped to HOLD.
