JOBLESS CLAIMS (MarketWatch)
“The number of Americans who applied for unemployment
benefits in early February rose slightly, but there’s still no sign of
widespread layoffs in an economy that has been expanding for a record 10 and a
half years. Initial jobless claims edged up by 2,000 to 205,000 in the seven
days ended Feb. 8…” Story at…
CPI (CNBC)
“U.S. underlying consumer prices picked up in January as
households paid more for rents and clothing, supporting the Federal Reserve’s
contention that inflation would gradually rise toward its 2% target. The Labor
Department said on Thursday its consumer price index excluding the volatile
food and energy components rose 0.2% last month…” Story at…
HUGE JUMP IN INFECTIONS (ZeroHedge)
“Recall that on Monday we published ‘This Is How China Is
Rigging The Number Of Coronavirus Infections’ in which we explained that China
on Feb 7 moved the goalposts by changing the definition of the term
"infection" and that "going forward patients who tested
positive for the virus but have no symptoms will no longer be regarded as
confirmed." Well, it appears that a few days later, China changed its mind
and has reverted to the original definition of "infection" while also
including ‘clinical diagnosis’…”
Story at…
YOU CAN’T MAKE THIS STUFF UP (Wirepoints)
“What’s causing today’s record high [water]
levels [in the Great Lakes]? Climate change, naturally.” But wait; what was
causing the low levels just six years ago? Global warming!
“What we are seeing in global warming is the evaporation
of our Great Lakes.” That was Illinois Senator Dick Durbin in 2013 when Lake
Michigan was at a record low.” Story at…
My cmt: Why is Joe Biden falling in the polls? It’s
probably Global warming.
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Thursday the S&P 500 slipped about 0.2% to 3374.
-VIX rose about 3% to 14.15.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury slipped to 1.618.
As of yesterday, there had been only 2 days down over the
prior 10 trading-days, so we were due for a down day today.
The S&P 500 still remains stretched; as of today, it
is 11.3% above 200-day moving average. As previously discussed in yesterday’s
blog, this is rarified bear-air.
The daily sum of 20 Indicators declined from +6 to
+2 (a positive number is bullish; negatives are bearish). The 10-day smoothed
sum that negates the daily fluctuations improved from -20 to -10. (These
numbers sometimes change after I post the blog based on data that comes in
late.) Most of these indicators are short-term.
Based on the overstretched S&P 500, I am expecting another
dip – not huge, but perhaps in the 5-10% zone. (It could always be worse if we
get bad news.) We’ll see.
TOP / BOTTOM INDICATOR SCALE OF 1 TO 10 (Zero is a
neutral reading.)
Today’s Reading: -1
Most Recent Day with a value other than Zero: -1 on 13 February
(The S&P 500 was too far above its 200-dMA when sentiment is considered.)
(1) +10 Max Bullish / -10 Max Bearish)
(2) -4 or below is a Sell sign. +4 or higher is a Buy
Sign.
MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF
15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see
NTSM Page at…
TODAY’S RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked stock receives 100%. The rest are then
ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading stock.
THURSDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
Market Internals
remained POSITIVE / BULLISH on the market.
Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of
current market action but should not be used alone for short term trading. They
are usually right, but they are often late.
They are most useful when they diverge from the Index. In 2014, using these internals alone would
have made a 9% return vs. 13% for the S&P 500 (in on Positive, out on
Negative – no shorting).
Using the Short-term indicator in 2018 in SPY would have
made a 5% gain instead of a 6% loss for buy-and-hold. The methodology was Buy
on a POSITIVE indication and Sell on a NEGATIVE indication and stay out until
the next POSITIVE indication. The back-test included 13-buys and 13-sells, or a
trade every 2-weeks on average.
My current stock allocation is about 45% invested in
stocks as of 27 January (down from 60%). This is a conservative position
appropriate for a retiree. You may wish to have a higher or lower % invested in
stocks depending on your risk tolerance.
INTERMEDIATE / LONG-TERM INDICATOR
Thursday, the VOLUME indicator is bullish; VIX, PRICE,
and SENTIMENT Indicators were neutral. The Long-Term Indicator is HOLD.
