“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
“The big money is not in the buying and selling. But in
the waiting.” - Charlie Munger, Vice Chairman, Berkshire Hathaway
“People always ask me what is going on in the markets. It
is simple. Greatest Speculative Bubble of All Time in All Things. By two orders
of magnitude.” – Michael “Big Short” Burry.
“I never imagined that I would see the day that the
Chairman of the House Judiciary Committee would step forward to call for raw [Supreme]
court packing. It is a sign of our current political environment where rage
overwhelms reason.” - Professor Jonathan Turley, honorary Doctorate of Law from
John Marshall Law School for his contributions to civil liberties and the
public interest.
From...
https://michaelpramirez.com/voter-integrity-06-06-21.html
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE (Conference Board)
“The Conference Board Consumer
Confidence Index® improved further in June, following gains in each
of the previous four months. The Index now stands at 127.3 (1985=100), up from
120.0 (an upward revision) in May...“Consumer confidence increased in June and
is currently at its highest level since the onset of the pandemic’s first surge
in March 2020,” said Lynn Franco, Senior Director of Economic Indicators
at The Conference Board. “Consumers’ assessment of current conditions improved
again, suggesting economic growth has strengthened further in Q2.” Press
release at...
https://conference-board.org/data/consumerconfidence.cfm
CORONAVIRUS (NTSM)
Here’s the latest from the COVID19 Johns Hopkins website
as of 5:10 PM Tuesday. US total case numbers are on the left axis; daily
numbers are on the right side of the graph with the 10-dMA of daily numbers in
Green.
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Tuesday the S&P 500 rose
about a point to 4292.
-VIX rose about 2% to 16.02.
-The yield on the 10-year
Treasury slipped to 1.472%.
Oil was up today and that
should have translated into an up-day for the XLE, but XLE was down about 0.5%.
Boeing had good news with a massive plane order from United airlines. Boeing was also down. When good news is met with bad results I
worry.
The Index was up slightly, so officially,
the S&P 500 made a new, all-time high today. There is a troubling trend in place
– the % of new 52-week highs on the NYSE has been falling over the last
half-dozen new, Index highs. It was 17% on 7 May and 10% about 2-weeks ago. It
has dropped to 4.5% today. That is below
average, but it is not low enough to give us a sell signal. Still, the steady decline
is concerning.
The daily sum of 20 Indicators remained zero (a positive
number is bullish; negatives are bearish); the 10-day smoothed sum that smooths
the daily fluctuations remained -40. (These numbers sometimes change after I
post the blog based on data that comes in late.) Most of these indicators are
short-term and many are trend following.
The Long Term NTSM indicator
ensemble remained HOLD. Price, Volume, VIX & Sentiment are neutral.
There is currently only 1
top-indicator is warning of a top; the Index is stretched too far ahead of its
200-dMA, but just barely.
I remain cautiously bullish.
MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs
(Ranked Daily)
The top ranked ETF receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading
ETF.
*For additional background on
the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
TODAY’S RANKING OF THE DOW 30
STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
Here’s the revised DOW 30 and
its momentum analysis. The top ranked stock receives 100%. The rest are then
ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading stock.
For more details, see NTSM
Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
TUESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE
DATA)
Market Internals remained NEUTRAL on the market.
Market Internals are a decent
trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be used alone
for short term trading. They are usually right, but they are often late. They are most useful when they diverge from
the Index.
Using the Short-term indicator
in 2018 in SPY would have made a 5% gain instead of a 6% loss for buy-and-hold.
The methodology was Buy on a POSITIVE indication and Sell on a NEGATIVE
indication and stay out until the next POSITIVE indication. The back-test
included 13-buys and 13-sells, or a trade every 2-weeks on average.
As of 25 May, my
stock-allocation is about 50% invested in stocks. I am not super bullish and I
am watching the markets closely. For now, 50% is a reasonable allocation for
me.
You may wish to have a higher
or lower % invested in stocks depending on your risk tolerance. 50% is a
conservative position that I consider fully invested for most retirees. As a
retiree, 50% in the stock market is about fully invested for me – it is a
cautious and conservative number. If I feel very confident, I might go to 60%;
if a correction is deep enough, and I can call a bottom, 80% would not be out
of the question.
