“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
“People always ask me what is going on in the markets. It
is simple. Greatest Speculative Bubble of All Time in All Things. By two orders
of magnitude.” – Michael “Big Short” Burry.
“I never imagined that I would see the day that the
Chairman of the House Judiciary Committee would step forward to call for raw [Supreme]
court packing. It is a sign of our current political environment where rage
overwhelms reason.” - Professor Jonathan Turley, honorary Doctorate of Law from
John Marshall Law School for his contributions to civil liberties and the
public interest.
DURABLE ORDERS (Fox Business)
“New orders for manufactured big-ticket items rose a
seasonally adjusted 2.3% month-over-month in May, a reversal of April’s
surprise 1.3% decline, as reported by the Commerce Department. Transportation
equipment led the increase...” Story at...
https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/durable-goods-economy-fed-big-ticket
JOBLESS CLAIMS (CNBC)
“Initial claims for unemployment insurance remained
elevated last week as employers struggled to fill a record number of job
openings. First-time filings totaled 411,000 for the week ended June 19...
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/24/weekly-jobless-claims.html
GDP – THIRD ESTIMATE (PYMNTS.com)
“The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the U.S. is up 6.4
percent for the first quarter of 2021, according to the third estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).”
https://www.pymnts.com/economy/2021/third-gdp-estimate-of-6-4-pct-unchanged-from-second-measurement/
My cmt: But wait...we still need trillions in
infrastructure and Gov’t give-aways to stimulate the economy.
GIULIANI SUSPENDED FROM PRACTICING LAW FOR ELECTION LIES
(CNBC)
“A New York court on Thursday suspended Rudy Giuliani from practicing law in New York state due
to making “false and misleading statements” about the election loss of former
President Donald Trump,
his client....Among the examples of conduct cited by the order was what it
called Giuliani’s repeated false claims to a federal judge in Pennsylvania
after Election Day that Trump’s campaign “was pursuing a fraud claim, when
indisputably it was not.” Story at...
Last December, I quoted Chris Christie, former Republican
Gov of NJ, when he said, ’They allege fraud outside of the courtroom but when
they go inside the courtroom, they don’t plead fraud and they don’t argue
fraud,’ Christie said, adding ‘you have an obligation to present the evidence,
the evidence has not been presented.’” Story at...
My cmt: They didn’t present evidence of fraud in the
courtroom because they could be charged with perjury if they didn’t tell the
truth – and the claims of fraud were not true. I’ll say it again, those who
continue to support this “stolen election” sham are hurting the country and
enflaming those who refuse to consider the facts.
GLOBAL WARMING FRAUD (MishTalk)
“When you want to
mislead people with statistics picking the start date is very important...”
US Wildfires as Presented by Alarmists vs Actual Data
Charts and discussion at...
https://mishtalk.com/economics/global-warming-fraud-exposed-in-pictures
CORONAVIRUS (NTSM)
Here’s the latest from the COVID19 Johns Hopkins website as
of 5:15 PM Thursday. US total case numbers are on the left axis; daily numbers
are on the right side of the graph with the 10-dMA of daily numbers in Green.
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Thursday the S&P 500 rose
about 0.6% to 4266.
-VIX dropped about 2% to 15.97.
-The yield on the 10-year
Treasury rose to 1.494%.
The Market shows that more
stocks/issues have been participating recently. The 10-dMA of issues advancing
on the NYSE was 51% today. Today is the first time since last week that more
than half of the issues on the NYSE have been up over the last 10-days.
The S&P 500 made a new
all-time high today while 6% of issues on the NYSE made new-52-week highs. That’s
about average for 52-week-highs when the Index makes a new high – that’s a good
sign that the advance is reasonably broad.
The daily sum of 20 Indicators improved from -7 to +1 (a
positive number is bullish; negatives are bearish); the 10-day smoothed sum
that smooths the daily fluctuations dropped from -27 to -30. (These numbers
sometimes change after I post the blog based on data that comes in late.) Most
of these indicators are short-term and many are trend following.
The Long Term NTSM indicator
ensemble remained HOLD. Volume, VIX, Price & Sentiment are neutral.
There are currently no
top-indicators that are warning of a top.
I am cautiously bullish.
MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs
(Ranked Daily)
The top ranked ETF receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading
ETF.
*For additional background on
the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
TODAY’S RANKING OF THE DOW 30
STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
Here’s the revised DOW 30 and its momentum analysis. The top ranked stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading stock.
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
THURSDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
Market Internals remained NEUTRAL on the market.
Market Internals are a decent
trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be used alone
for short term trading. They are usually right, but they are often late. They are most useful when they diverge from
the Index.
Using the Short-term indicator
in 2018 in SPY would have made a 5% gain instead of a 6% loss for buy-and-hold.
The methodology was Buy on a POSITIVE indication and Sell on a NEGATIVE
indication and stay out until the next POSITIVE indication. The back-test
included 13-buys and 13-sells, or a trade every 2-weeks on average.
You may wish to have a higher
or lower % invested in stocks depending on your risk tolerance. 50% is a
conservative position that I consider fully invested for most retirees. As a
retiree, 50% in the stock market is about fully invested for me – it is a
cautious and conservative number. If I feel very confident, I might go to 60%;
if a correction is deep enough, and I can call a bottom, 80% would not be out
of the question.
The markets have not
retested the lows on recent corrections and that left me under-invested on the
bounces. I will need to put less reliance on retests in the future.
