“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
“People always ask me what is going on in the markets. It
is simple. Greatest Speculative Bubble of All Time in All Things. By two orders
of magnitude.” – Michael “Big Short” Burry.
CHICAGO PMI (Advisor Perspectives)
“The Chicago Business BarometerTM, produced with MNI,
fell to 66.8 in August, the lowest reading since June after climbing to a
two-month high in July. Order backlogs rose sharply while production sank.
Firms say the available supply of raw materials and workers isn’t sufficient to
keep up with new orders.” Commentary and charts at...
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2021/08/31/chicago-pmi-fell-in-august
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE (Conference Board via prnewswire)
“The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® declined in August, following
a decrease in July (a downward revision)... "Consumer confidence retreated
in August to its lowest level since February 2021 (95.2),"
said Lynn Franco, Senior Director of Economic
Indicators at The Conference Board. "Concerns about the Delta variant—and,
to a lesser degree, rising gas and food prices—resulted in a less favorable
view of current economic conditions and short-term growth prospects...it is too
soon to conclude this decline will result in consumers significantly curtailing
their spending in the months ahead." Story at...
THE NEXT STEP IN COVID VACCINES MAY BE THROUGH THE NOSE
(Smithsonian Magazine)
“...The existing vaccines achieve systemic immunity by
spurring the production of antibodies called immunoglobulin G, or IgG and
killer T cells. These cells and proteins are highly effective at neutralizing
the virus before seriously damaging our key organs. But to prevent the virus
from entering into the body in the first place, scientists likely need to
target the mucosal system. The moist tissue lining the nasal and mouth are part
of the mucosal system, which stretches from there all the way through the
gastrointestinal and reproductive tracts...Injected Covid-19 vaccines don’t
appear to elicit much of an antibody response in the mucosa, says Michal Tal,
an immunologist at Stanford University and team lead of the Stanford Saliva
Study - an effort to track antibodies that are secreted in saliva from
people who have been vaccinated. Many people who have been naturally infected
with Covid-19 seem to create a mucosal immune response early in the infection,
but for those relying on a vaccine to build their immunity, an intranasal
vaccine may provide a necessary IgA supplement to their systemic immunity.”
Story at...
My cmt: Clearly, vaccines are not perfect, but they are
better than nothing. I have a friend of
mine who chose not to get vaccinated. He
and his wife contracted Covid at an outdoor wedding in June along with 10
others (food was served inside). My friend’s wife has not recovered and may be
a “long-hauler.” (An individual with lasting Covid symptoms.) My friend is only
now recovering. The irony is that he is literally a rocket scientist and should
have known better. Anti-vaxers make no sense to me.
Why get information from bogus websites when you could
read real scientific studies on the subject? For a more direct access to scientific papers
and journals on any subject, use “Google Scholar” for your searches.
CORONAVIRUS (NTSM)
Here’s the latest from the COVID19 Johns Hopkins website as of 4:00 PM Tuesday. U.S. total case numbers are on the left axis; daily numbers are on the right side of the graph in Red with the 10-dMA of daily numbers in Green.
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Tuesday the S&P 500 slipped about 0.1% to 4523.
-VIX rose about 2% to 16.48.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 1.308%.
Not much change today.
Indicators continue to improve slowly.
The daily sum of 20 Indicators improved from +1 to +2 (a
positive number is bullish; negatives are bearish); the 10-day smoothed sum
that smooths the daily fluctuations improved from -68 to -58. (These numbers
sometimes change after I post the blog based on data that comes in late.) Most
of these indicators are short-term and many are trend following.
The Long Term NTSM indicator
ensemble remained HOLD. Price, Volume, VIX & Sentiment indicators are
neutral.
I moved my stock allocation
back to my fully invested position of 50%, Monday. I am cautiously bullish. A top is coming, but not THE TOP.
MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs
(Ranked Daily)
The top ranked ETF receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading
ETF.
*For additional background on
the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
TODAY’S RANKING OF THE DOW 30
STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
Here’s the revised DOW 30 and
its momentum analysis. The top ranked stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked
based on their momentum relative to the leading stock.
For more details, see NTSM
Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
TUESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE
DATA)
Market Internals remained BULLISH on the market.
Market Internals are a decent
trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be used alone
for short term trading. They are usually right, but they are often late. They are most useful when they diverge from
the Index.
My stock-allocation is now about
50% invested in stocks; this is my “normal” 50% allocation.
You may wish to have a higher
or lower % invested in stocks depending on your risk tolerance. 50% is a
conservative position that I consider fully invested for most retirees.
