“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
“People always ask me what is going on in the markets. It
is simple. Greatest Speculative Bubble of All Time in All Things. By two orders
of magnitude.” – Michael “Big Short” Burry.
"If I was Darth Vader and I wanted to destroy the US
economy, I would do aggressive spending in the middle of an already hot
economy...This is the biggest bubble I've seen in my career." - Stanley
Druckenmiller, billionaire investor.
“Inflation is not going to be transitory; I’ve been
pretty certain in my mind about three prior calls. This is the fourth one.” -
Mohamed El-Erian, Chief economic adviser at Allianz SE
JOLTS JOB OPENINGS (Bloomberg)
“U.S. job openings surged in June by more than forecast
to a fresh record high, highlighting businesses’ persistent struggles to hire
enough workers to keep up with rebounding economic activity. The number of
available positions rose to 10.1 million during the month...”
CANARIES ARE STRUGGLING TO BREATH (Heritage Capital)
“...we have a seasonally
weak headwind and there are and have been a number of warning
signs and that list keeps building. It can end two ways for the stock market.
One, price can explode higher with broadening participation which corrects the
various non-confirmations. Or two, price will give way to the cracks in the
pavement and the stock market will stumble. For now, I am in the latter camp.” - Paul Schatz, President Heritage Capital.
Commentary at...
https://investfortomorrow.com/blog/some-canaries-are-struggling-to-breathe/
DOES THE TUSKEGEE EXPERIMENT REALLY EXPLAIN BLACK
VACINATION RATES? (Matt Bruenig.com)
“Black vaccination rates lag the rest of the country,
according to data from the Census
Household Pulse Survey and other similar sources.
One common explanation for this in the discourse is that
black people are skeptical of the vaccine because of prior historical events in
which they were abused and experimented upon by the US government and
healthcare authorities...
...Perhaps more compelling than this abstract reasoning
is the breakdown of the black vaccination rate by education level.
As with the population in general and every other racial
group, black vaccination rates climb in lockstep with educational attainment...
... this just-so story about black vaccine hesitancy
is...totally detached from reality and papers over the much more significant
socioeconomic factors.” – Matt Bruenig, founder of the left-leaning think tank,
People's Policy Project. Commentary at...
CORONAVIRUS (NTSM)
Here’s the latest from the COVID19 Johns Hopkins website as
of 9:00 PM Monday. U.S. total case numbers are on the left axis; daily numbers
are on the right side of the graph in Red with the 10-dMA of daily numbers in
Green.
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Monday the S&P 500 slipped about 0.1% to 4432.
-VIX rose about 4% to 16.72.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury slipped to 1.321%.
The daily sum of 20 Indicators improved from -1 to zero
(a positive number is bullish; negatives are bearish); the 10-day smoothed sum
that smooths the daily fluctuations improved from -34 to -29. (These numbers
sometimes change after I post the blog based on data that comes in late.) Most
of these indicators are short-term and many are trend following.
The Long Term NTSM indicator
remained HOLD. Volume, VIX, Price & Sentiment are neutral.
I remain cautiously bullish.
MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs
(Ranked Daily)
The top ranked ETF receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading
ETF.
*For additional background on
the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
TODAY’S RANKING OF THE DOW 30
STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
Here’s the revised DOW 30 and
its momentum analysis. The top ranked stock receives 100%. The rest are then
ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading stock.
For more details, see NTSM
Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
MONDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
Market Internals remained BULLISH on the market.
Market Internals are a decent
trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be used alone
for short term trading. They are usually right, but they are often late. They are most useful when they diverge from
the Index.
Using the Short-term indicator
in 2018 in SPY would have made a 5% gain instead of a 6% loss for buy-and-hold.
The methodology was Buy on a POSITIVE indication and Sell on a NEGATIVE
indication and stay out until the next POSITIVE indication. The back-test
included 13-buys and 13-sells, or a trade every 2-weeks on average.
My stock-allocation is about 50%
invested in stocks. I am not super bullish (or bearish) and I am watching the
markets closely.
You may wish to have a higher
or lower % invested in stocks depending on your risk tolerance. 50% is a
conservative position that I consider fully invested for most retirees. As a
retiree, 50% in the stock market is about fully invested for me – it is a
cautious and conservative number. If I feel very confident, I might go to 60%;
if a correction is deep enough, and I can call a bottom, 80% would not be out
of the question.
