“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
“People always ask me what is going on in the markets. It
is simple. Greatest Speculative Bubble of All Time in All Things. By two orders
of magnitude.” – Michael “Big Short” Burry.
"If I was Darth Vader and I wanted to destroy the US
economy, I would do aggressive spending in the middle of an already hot
economy...This is the biggest bubble I've seen in my career." - Stanley
Druckenmiller, billionaire investor.
“Inflation is not going to be transitory; I’ve been
pretty certain in my mind about three prior calls. This is the fourth one.” -
Mohamed El-Erian, Chief economic adviser at Allianz SE
NFIB SMALL BUSINESS OPTIMISM (Reuters)
“Small business owners across the United States grew less
confident in the economic recovery in July as labor shortages remained an
issue, according to a survey released on Tuesday.” Story at...
PRODUCTIVITY (WSJ)
“The Labor Department on Tuesday reported that
productivity, as measured by how much the typical worker gets done in an
hour, rose at a 2.3% annual rate in the second quarter from the
previous quarter, putting it 1.9% above its year-earlier level. That was a
significant slowdown from the first quarter, when productivity was up 4.1% from
a year earlier...” Story at...
https://www.wsj.com/articles/why-the-productivity-boom-isnt-over-11628615911
CORONAVIRUS (NTSM)
Here’s the latest from the COVID19 Johns Hopkins website as
of 10:30 PM Tuesday. U.S. total case numbers are on the left axis; daily
numbers are on the right side of the graph in Red with the 10-dMA of daily
numbers in Green.
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Tuesday the S&P 500 rose about 0.1% to 4437.
-VIX rose about 0.4% to 16.79.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury slipped to 1.355%.
The daily sum of 20 Indicators remained -1 (a positive
number is bullish; negatives are bearish); the 10-day smoothed sum that smooths
the daily fluctuations improved from -34 to -28. (These numbers sometimes
change after I post the blog based on data that comes in late.) Most of these
indicators are short-term and many are trend following.
The Long Term NTSM indicator
remained HOLD. Volume, VIX, Price & Sentiment are neutral.
I remain cautiously bullish.
MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs
(Ranked Daily)
The top ranked ETF receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading
ETF.
*For additional background on
the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
TODAY’S RANKING OF THE DOW 30
STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
Here’s the revised DOW 30 and
its momentum analysis. The top ranked stock receives 100%. The rest are then
ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading stock.
For more details, see NTSM
Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
TUESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE
DATA)
Market Internals remained BULLISH on the market.
Market Internals are a decent
trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be used alone
for short term trading. They are usually right, but they are often late. They are most useful when they diverge from
the Index.
Using the Short-term indicator in 2018 in SPY would have made a 5% gain instead of a 6% loss for buy-and-hold. The methodology was Buy on a POSITIVE indication and Sell on a NEGATIVE indication and stay out until the next POSITIVE indication. The back-test included 13-buys and 13-sells, or a trade every 2-weeks on average.
My stock-allocation is about 50%
invested in stocks. I am not super bullish (or bearish) and I am watching the
markets closely.
You may wish to have a higher
or lower % invested in stocks depending on your risk tolerance. 50% is a
conservative position that I consider fully invested for most retirees. As a
retiree, 50% in the stock market is about fully invested for me – it is a
cautious and conservative number. If I feel very confident, I might go to 60%;
if a correction is deep enough, and I can call a bottom, 80% would not be out
of the question.
