“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
“On June 24,
President Joe Biden called the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade
a “realization of an extreme ideology and a tragic error”...Biden supported a
constitutional amendment that would have allowed states to overturn Roe v. Wade
as a senator in 1982.” [Ya’ gotta love Politicians.]
THE LAW REQUIRES PAT CIPOLLONE [WHITE HOUSE COUNSEL TO
TRUMP] TO ANSWER JAN 6 COMITTEE QUESTIONS (Just Security.com)
“Stated simply, the President has no legitimate role in
the Joint Session of Congress held pursuant to the Twelfth Amendment. Trump’s
efforts to corrupt and obstruct the Joint Session—including his incitement of
an armed, violent mob to attack the Capitol—reflected his private pursuit of
power, not any presidential function. Because he was acting only as a person
seeking office (a.k.a., a candidate), he exceeded his official capacity and
lost the prerogatives that come with it. Cipollone’s communications with Trump
on this subject thus did not occur between a government lawyer and his client,
and so they are not privileged.” - W. Neil Eggleston, White House Counsel for
President Barack Obama, 2014-2017; Lecturer of Law at Harvard Law School. Full
analysis at...
Bottom line: Cipollone is not likely to successfully
claim attorney-client privilege to avoid answering.
FOMC MINUTES (CNBC)
“Federal Reserve officials in June emphasized the need to
fight inflation even if it meant slowing an economy that already appears on the
brink of a recession, according to meeting minutes released Wednesday. Members
said the July meeting likely also would see another 50 or 75 basis point move...A
basis point is one one-hundredth of 1 percentage point.” Story at...
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/07/06/fed-minutes-june-2022.html
ISM NON MANUFACTURING INDEX (ISM via PRNewswire)
“Economic activity in the services sector grew
in June for the 25th month in a row — with the Services
PMI® registering 55.3 percent...The slight slowdown in services sector
growth was due to a decline in new orders and employment...Logistical
challenges, a restricted labor pool, material shortages, inflation, the
coronavirus pandemic and the war in Ukraine continue
to negatively impact the services sector." Press release at...
JOLTS – JOB OPENINGS (CNBC)
“Job openings fell sharply in May but still far
outnumbered the level of people looking for work, the Bureau of Labor
Statistics reported Wednesday...There were 5.95 million people counted as
unemployed in the month, meaning there were 1.9 openings per every available
worker, still around historical highs... Quits also declined slightly, falling
to 4.27 million as the so-called Great Resignation abated.” Story at...
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/07/06/jolts-job-openings-may-2022-.html
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Wednesday the S&P 500 rose about 0.4% to 3845.
-VIX dipped about 2.9% to 26.73.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 2.935%.
PULLBACK DATA:
-Drop from Top: 19.8% as of today. 23.6% max.
-Days since Top: 126-days.
The S&P 500 is 12.3% BELOW its 200-dMA & 3.5%
BELOW its 50-dMA.
*I won’t call the correction over until the S&P 500
makes a new-high; however, we hope to be able to call the bottom when we see
it.
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
None.
TODAY’S COMMENT:
I said last week that I thought the S&P 500 could
make it to its 50-dMA. The Index is now
3.5% below its 50-dMA so that is still possible.
My Money Trend indicator is based on market internals and
price; it remains bullish. Buying-Pressure has been outpacing Selling-Pressure
recently and the chart is bullishly diverging from the Index. Both indicators suggest
the S&P 500 can go higher.
Today, there was high unchanged-volume. As I’ve often
said, many believe that this indicator suggests investor confusion at market
turning points. Recent history shows this indicator has indicated a reversal of
some kind, either now, or near future. My problem is that it is frequently a
false signal. At this point if the indicator is sending a decent signal, it
probably is suggesting a reversal down, but I don’t have a great deal of
confidence in the call.
My guess is that the next leg down will be signaled by a
huge up-day as FOMO (fear of missing out) takes over.
Today, the daily sum of 20 Indicators declined from +4 to
+2 (a positive number is bullish; negatives are bearish); the 10-day smoothed
sum that smooths the daily fluctuations improved from +48 to +50. (The trend
direction is more important than the actual number for the 10-day value.) These
numbers sometimes change after I post the blog based on data that comes in late.
Most of these 20 indicators are short-term so they tend to bounce around a
lot.
LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long
Term NTSM indicator remained HOLD: VOLUME is bullish; PRICE, SENTIMENT &
VIX are Neutral.
I’m a Bear, longer-term. In the short-term, I am in wait-and-see
mode.
BEST ETFs - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs
(Ranked Daily)
All of the ETFs I track are
below their 120-dMAs, so my chart methodology is not valid. Top four ETF
ranking follows:
(1) IBB (2)
XLU (3) XLV (4) ITA These are conservative, “investors-are-playing-defense,”
leaders.
*For additional background on
the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
BEST DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM
RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
Here’s the revised DOW 30 and
its momentum analysis. The top ranked stock receives 100%. The rest are then
ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
WEDNESDAY MARKET INTERNALS
(NYSE DATA)
Market Internals are a decent
trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be used alone
for short term trading. They are usually right, but they are often late. They are most useful when they diverge from
the Index.
My stock-allocation in the
portfolio is now roughly 30% invested in stocks.
I trade about 15-20% of the total
portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. If I can see a
definitive bottom, I’ll add a lot more stocks to the portfolio using an S&P
500 ETF.
You may wish to have a higher
or lower % invested in stocks depending on your risk tolerance. 50% is a
conservative position that I consider fully invested for most retirees.
As a general rule, some
suggest that the % of portfolio invested in the stock market should be one’s
age subtracted from 100. So, a
30-year-old person would have 70% of the portfolio in stocks, stock mutual
funds and/or stock ETFs. That’s ok, but
for older investors, I usually don’t recommend keeping less than 50% invested
in stocks (as a fully invested position) since most people need some growth in
the portfolio to keep up with inflation.
