“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
"The European Union just took a major step toward
accepting and promoting nuclear energy as a form of “green energy.” Naturally,
climate change activists celebrated the move to normalize a form of energy
production that produces zero carbon emissions. Just kidding. Many on the green
Left actually criticized the EU’s move. “No amount of lobbyism and
greenwashing will ever make [nuclear] ‘green,’” activist Greta Thunberg tweeted in advance of the decision. “We desperately need
real renewable energy, not false solutions.” From msn.com at...
Greta Thunberg just (accidentally) revealed the green Left’s inconsistency (msn.com)
PAYROLL REPORT / UNEMPLOYMENT RATE (CNBC)
“Job growth accelerated at a much faster pace than expected in June, indicating that the main pillar of the U.S. economy remains strong despite pockets of weakness. Nonfarm payrolls increased 372,000 in the month, better than the 250,000 Dow Jones estimate...The unemployment rate was 3.6%...
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/07/08/jobs-report-june-2022-.html
Gus Faucher, chief economist at PNC Financial Services Group concluded that the US economy is nowhere near a recession at the current time.
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Friday the S&P 500 slipped about 0.1% to 3899.
-VIX dipped about 6% to 24.64.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 3.084%.
PULLBACK DATA:
-Drop from Top: 18.7% as of today. 23.6% max.
-Days since Top: 128-days.
The S&P 500 is 10.9% BELOW its 200-dMA & 1.8% BELOW its 50-dMA.
*I won’t call the correction over until the S&P 500 makes a new-high; however, we hope to be able to call the bottom when we see it.
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
None.
TODAY’S COMMENT:
On Fridays, I summarize a number of indicators to get a weekly feel for trend. Overall, the end-of-week summary has continued to improve (8-bear and 14-bull) over the last 3-weeks. These indicators tend to be both long-term and short-term, so they are different than the 20 that I report on daily. Details follow:
BULL SIGNS
-Sentiment.
-The 10-dMA % of issues advancing on the NYSE (Breadth) is above 50%.
-MACD of the percentage of issues advancing on the NYSE (breadth) made a bullish crossover 24 June.
-MACD of S&P 500 price made a bullish crossover 24 June.
-Buying Pressure minus Selling Pressure is rising.
-My Money Trend indicator is rising.
-Short-term new-high/new-low data.
-The short-term, 5-day & 10-day, Fosback Hi-Low Logic Indexes are Bullish.
-The longer-term, 50-dEMA, Fosback Hi-Low Logic Index is Bullish.
-McClellan Oscillator is positive.
-The graph of the 100-day Count (the 100-day sum of up-days) is headed up.
-1 July was a Bullish Outside Reversal Day.
-The size of up-moves has been larger than the size of down-moves over the last month.
-VIX.
NEUTRAL
-There have been 2 Statistically-Significant day (big moves in price-volume) in the last 15-days.
-The S&P 500 is 10.9% below its 200-dMA. (Bull indicator is 12% below the 200-day, although this is based on “normal” pullbacks.)
-There was a Distribution Day, 30 June, but 1 will not send a signal.
-Bollinger Bands – close to bullish.
-RSI – close to bullish.
-Overbought/Oversold Index (Advance/Decline Ratio).
-Issues advancing on the NYSE (Breadth) compared to the S&P 500.
-Long-term new-high/new-low data.
-Slope of the 40-dMA of New-highs is flat. This is one of my favorite trend indicators.
-The 52-week, New-high/new-low ratio improved by 0.2 standard deviations on 24 June – too small to send a signal.
-There have been 9 up-days over the last 20 sessions –neutral.
-There have been 5 up-days over the last 10 sessions – neutral.
-The Smart Money (late-day action) is mixed.
-The 5-10-20 Timer System is HOLD; the 5-dEMA and 10-dEMA are not both BELOW the 20-dEMA.
-There was a Hindenburg Omen signal 8 April – it was canceled when the McClellan Oscillator turned bullish.
-The Calm-before-the-Storm/Panic Indicator.
-2.8% of all issues traded on the NYSE made new, 52-week highs when the S&P 500 made a new all-time-high, 3 January. (There is no bullish signal for this indicator.) This indicated that the advance was too narrow and a correction was likely to be >10%. – It proved correct, but is now Expired
-52% of the 15-ETFs that I track have been up over the last 10-days.
BEAR SIGNS
-The smoothed advancing volume on the NYSE is falling.
-The 50-dMA percentage of issues advancing on the NYSE (Breadth) is below 50.
-The 100-dMA percentage of issues advancing on the NYSE (Breadth) is below 50%
-The 50-dMA percentage of issues advancing on the NYSE (Breadth) has been below 50% for more than 100 consecutive days. (3 days in a row is my “correction-now” signal)
-Cyclical Industrials (XLI-ETF) are under-performing the S&P 500.
-There was an Inverse Zweig Breadth Collapse (negative Breadth Thrust) 21 June. That’s a rare, very-bearish sign.
-There were three 90% Down-volume days 9-16June. These remain until cancelled by high up-volume days.
-Utilities (XLU) are outperforming the S&P 500.
On Friday, 21 February, 2 days after the top before the
Coronavirus pullback, there were 10 bear-signs and 1 bull-sign. Now there
are 8 bear-signs and 14-Bull. Last week, there were 12 bear-signs and 11
bull-signs.
I continue to see a lot of technical bullish indicators,
but at the same time, there is a lot of buying in defensive sectors of the
stock market. That suggests that the
current bounce is a rally within a bear market.
I said last week that I thought the S&P 500 could
make it to its 50-dMA. The Index is now
1.8% below its 50-dMA so that is still possible.
The Friday ensemble of indicators is bullish. My Money
Trend indicator remains bullish and Buying-Pressure has been outpacing
Selling-Pressure recently. Both indicators suggest the S&P 500 can go
higher. The rate of rise in both has slowed so one wonders whether the Index
will get too far past the 50-dMA if it does make it there.
My guess is that the next leg down will be signaled by a
huge up-day as FOMO (fear of missing out) takes over.
Today, the daily sum of 20 Indicators declined from +8 to
+7(a positive number is bullish; negatives are bearish); the 10-day smoothed
sum that smooths the daily fluctuations improved from +60 to +71. (The trend
direction is more important than the actual number for the 10-day value.) These
numbers sometimes change after I post the blog based on data that comes in
late. Most of these 20 indicators are short-term so they tend to bounce
around a lot.
LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long
Term NTSM indicator remained BUY: SENTIMENT, PRICE, VOLUME & VIX are
bullish. While this is a very strong indication, it means that the markets have
been strong. I don’t consider this a good
time to buy since I expect the S&P 500 to retreat to its prior low and
possibly make new lows.
I’m a Bear, longer-term. In the short-term, I am in
wait-and-see mode. The question is, “How much longer can the rally go?” If the
S&P 500 can break above the 3980 region, it could make it all the way up to
around 4200. That would be about a 50% retracement and it also is close to the
100-dMA.
BEST ETFs - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
Highest ranked ETFs are conservative, “investors-are-playing-defense,” leaders.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
BEST DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
Here’s the revised DOW 30 and its momentum analysis. The top ranked stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
FRIDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE
DATA)
My basket of Market Internals is still giving a HOLD signal.
Market Internals are a decent
trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be used alone
for short term trading. They are usually right, but they are often late. They are most useful when they diverge from
the Index.
Greta Thunberg just (accidentally) revealed the green Left’s inconsistency (msn.com)
“Job growth accelerated at a much faster pace than expected in June, indicating that the main pillar of the U.S. economy remains strong despite pockets of weakness. Nonfarm payrolls increased 372,000 in the month, better than the 250,000 Dow Jones estimate...The unemployment rate was 3.6%...
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/07/08/jobs-report-june-2022-.html
Gus Faucher, chief economist at PNC Financial Services Group concluded that the US economy is nowhere near a recession at the current time.
-Friday the S&P 500 slipped about 0.1% to 3899.
-VIX dipped about 6% to 24.64.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 3.084%.
-Drop from Top: 18.7% as of today. 23.6% max.
-Days since Top: 128-days.
The S&P 500 is 10.9% BELOW its 200-dMA & 1.8% BELOW its 50-dMA.
*I won’t call the correction over until the S&P 500 makes a new-high; however, we hope to be able to call the bottom when we see it.
None.
On Fridays, I summarize a number of indicators to get a weekly feel for trend. Overall, the end-of-week summary has continued to improve (8-bear and 14-bull) over the last 3-weeks. These indicators tend to be both long-term and short-term, so they are different than the 20 that I report on daily. Details follow:
-Sentiment.
-The 10-dMA % of issues advancing on the NYSE (Breadth) is above 50%.
-MACD of the percentage of issues advancing on the NYSE (breadth) made a bullish crossover 24 June.
-MACD of S&P 500 price made a bullish crossover 24 June.
-Buying Pressure minus Selling Pressure is rising.
-My Money Trend indicator is rising.
-Short-term new-high/new-low data.
-The short-term, 5-day & 10-day, Fosback Hi-Low Logic Indexes are Bullish.
-The longer-term, 50-dEMA, Fosback Hi-Low Logic Index is Bullish.
-McClellan Oscillator is positive.
-The graph of the 100-day Count (the 100-day sum of up-days) is headed up.
-1 July was a Bullish Outside Reversal Day.
-The size of up-moves has been larger than the size of down-moves over the last month.
-VIX.
-There have been 2 Statistically-Significant day (big moves in price-volume) in the last 15-days.
-The S&P 500 is 10.9% below its 200-dMA. (Bull indicator is 12% below the 200-day, although this is based on “normal” pullbacks.)
-There was a Distribution Day, 30 June, but 1 will not send a signal.
-Bollinger Bands – close to bullish.
-RSI – close to bullish.
-Overbought/Oversold Index (Advance/Decline Ratio).
-Issues advancing on the NYSE (Breadth) compared to the S&P 500.
-Long-term new-high/new-low data.
-Slope of the 40-dMA of New-highs is flat. This is one of my favorite trend indicators.
-The 52-week, New-high/new-low ratio improved by 0.2 standard deviations on 24 June – too small to send a signal.
-There have been 9 up-days over the last 20 sessions –neutral.
-There have been 5 up-days over the last 10 sessions – neutral.
-The Smart Money (late-day action) is mixed.
-The 5-10-20 Timer System is HOLD; the 5-dEMA and 10-dEMA are not both BELOW the 20-dEMA.
-There was a Hindenburg Omen signal 8 April – it was canceled when the McClellan Oscillator turned bullish.
-The Calm-before-the-Storm/Panic Indicator.
-2.8% of all issues traded on the NYSE made new, 52-week highs when the S&P 500 made a new all-time-high, 3 January. (There is no bullish signal for this indicator.) This indicated that the advance was too narrow and a correction was likely to be >10%. – It proved correct, but is now Expired
-52% of the 15-ETFs that I track have been up over the last 10-days.
-The smoothed advancing volume on the NYSE is falling.
-The 50-dMA percentage of issues advancing on the NYSE (Breadth) is below 50.
-The 100-dMA percentage of issues advancing on the NYSE (Breadth) is below 50%
-The 50-dMA percentage of issues advancing on the NYSE (Breadth) has been below 50% for more than 100 consecutive days. (3 days in a row is my “correction-now” signal)
-Cyclical Industrials (XLI-ETF) are under-performing the S&P 500.
-There was an Inverse Zweig Breadth Collapse (negative Breadth Thrust) 21 June. That’s a rare, very-bearish sign.
-There were three 90% Down-volume days 9-16June. These remain until cancelled by high up-volume days.
-Utilities (XLU) are outperforming the S&P 500.
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
Highest ranked ETFs are conservative, “investors-are-playing-defense,” leaders.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
BEST DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
Here’s the revised DOW 30 and its momentum analysis. The top ranked stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
