“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
“Walmart shares fell after the company cut its profit expectations as inflation forces shoppers to spend more on food and less on electronics and other discretionary categories.” Story at...
.
DIZZYING WEEK AHEAD (Heritage Capital)
“With the biggest earnings week of the season including Amazon, Apple, Facebook, Microsoft and UPS, the FOMC announcement on Wednesday and first look at Q2 GDP on Thursday, this is going to be a super busy week. Heading into the weekend, S&P 4000 or so looked to be a logical pause point for the stock market as I wrote here. Stocks have had a nice bounce off the June bottom and a breather will not be the worst thing in the world... The key is to see if companies warn about Q3 or Q4 earnings or offer reduced forecasts. But the absolute most important thing isn’t what the news is, but how stocks react. Do you know what’s more bullish than a stock going up on bad news? Nothing. And the same holds true on the bearish side.” – Paul Schatz, President Heritage Capital. Full commentary at...
https://investfortomorrow.com/blog/dizzying-week-ahead/
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Monday the S&P 500 rose about 0.1% to 3967.
-VIX rose about 1% to 23.36. (VIX bucked trend today)
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 2.804%.
PULLBACK DATA:
-Drop from Top: 17.3% as of today. 23.6% max.
-Trading Days since Top: 19-days.
The S&P 500 is 8.9% BELOW its 200-dMA & 1.2% ABOVE its 50-dMA.
*I won’t call the correction over until the S&P 500 makes a new-high; however, we hope to be able to call the bottom when we see it.
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
SH, short the S&P 500 ETF.
TODAY’S COMMENT:
Back and forth was the call for the day as the S&P 500 gyrated between gains and losses. It fell nearly 1% from the high of the day only to recover all losses in the last hour and finish slightly up for the day.
Market internals were mostly positive except that new-lows
outpaced new-highs 60 to 25. As Paul
Schatz noted above, it’s all about the news this week.
Based on Walmart’s report, as I suggested last week, we
may find that the news is worse than anticipated. Walmart is down 10% in
after-hours trading as I write this
based on the report above..
Today, the daily sum of 20 Indicators declined from +9 to
+7 (a positive number is bullish; negatives are bearish); the 10-day smoothed sum
that smooths the daily fluctuations improved from +44 to +54. (The trend
direction is more important than the actual number for the 10-day value.) These
numbers sometimes change after I post the blog based on data that comes in
late. Most of these 20 indicators are short-term so they tend to bounce
around a lot.
LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long
Term NTSM indicator remained BUY: PRICE, SENTIMENT, VOLUME & VIX are
bullish. I still expect the S&P 500 to test its prior low of 3667, but it may
be possible to trade this market now, but remember, one indicator trumps them
all – “Don’t fight the FED.”
I’m a Bear although it is possible that the rally will
get to the 100-dMA and it is not impossible for the Index to reach the 200-dMA.
BEST ETFs - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
My chart of this data is looking funky again. The top four ETF ranking follows:
(1) IBB (2) XLV (3) XLU (4) XLE
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
BEST DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
Here’s the revised DOW 30 and its momentum analysis. The top ranked stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading stock.
“With the biggest earnings week of the season including Amazon, Apple, Facebook, Microsoft and UPS, the FOMC announcement on Wednesday and first look at Q2 GDP on Thursday, this is going to be a super busy week. Heading into the weekend, S&P 4000 or so looked to be a logical pause point for the stock market as I wrote here. Stocks have had a nice bounce off the June bottom and a breather will not be the worst thing in the world... The key is to see if companies warn about Q3 or Q4 earnings or offer reduced forecasts. But the absolute most important thing isn’t what the news is, but how stocks react. Do you know what’s more bullish than a stock going up on bad news? Nothing. And the same holds true on the bearish side.” – Paul Schatz, President Heritage Capital. Full commentary at...
https://investfortomorrow.com/blog/dizzying-week-ahead/
-Monday the S&P 500 rose about 0.1% to 3967.
-VIX rose about 1% to 23.36. (VIX bucked trend today)
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 2.804%.
-Drop from Top: 17.3% as of today. 23.6% max.
-Trading Days since Top: 19-days.
The S&P 500 is 8.9% BELOW its 200-dMA & 1.2% ABOVE its 50-dMA.
*I won’t call the correction over until the S&P 500 makes a new-high; however, we hope to be able to call the bottom when we see it.
SH, short the S&P 500 ETF.
Back and forth was the call for the day as the S&P 500 gyrated between gains and losses. It fell nearly 1% from the high of the day only to recover all losses in the last hour and finish slightly up for the day.
BEST ETFs - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
My chart of this data is looking funky again. The top four ETF ranking follows:
(1) IBB (2) XLV (3) XLU (4) XLE
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
BEST DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
Here’s the revised DOW 30 and its momentum analysis. The top ranked stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
MONDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
