“Just move on – you [former President Donald Trump] didn’t
win. You aren’t president of the United States.” - Carl Rove, Deputy Chief of Staff during
the George W. Bush administration &
Political Consultant.
"Scientists dismiss the idea that the coronavirus
pandemic was caused by the accident in a lab. They believe the close
interactions of people with wildlife worldwide are a far more likely
culprit." Geoff Brumfiel, NPR senior correspondent, Apr 2020.
My cmt: For me, it was always a matter of probability. Was it more likely a lab-event or did the virus emerge from a food market that has been in operation for a thousand years. Here’s what I said in April of 2020.
“We note that the EU was caught flat-footed by the virus too. That’s not a criticism; this event was very difficult to forecast. It wasn’t helped by the Chinese Communists who concealed the emergence of a new Coronavirus and put doctors in prison when they tried to publicize it. They also expelled US journalists who were reporting the news from China. While I don’t think the virus was manmade, I am suspicious that it may have escaped from a lab in Wuhan. If it didn’t, why were the commies trying to cover it up?”
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
FACTORY ORDERS (Yahoo Finance)
“New orders for U.S.-manufactured goods fell in January, pulled down by a plunge in civilian aircraft bookings, but increases in machinery and a range of other products suggested that manufacturing could be regaining its footing... Factory orders dropped 1.6% after increasing 1.7% in December.” Story at...
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-factory-orders-fall-january-153622630.html
TOM LEE PREDICTS 8-WEEK RALLY (MarketWatch via msn.com)
“...here to offer further comfort is Fundstrat’s head of research, Tom Lee. He says the market is ready for a strong eight week rally, a scenario that may catch out many investors because they remain nervous...” Story at...
Stocks will have an eight-week rally, and here are six reasons why, says Fundstrat’s Lee (msn.com)
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Monday the S&P 500 rose about 0.1% to 4048.
-VIX fell about 0.7% to 18.61.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury was 3.965%.
PULLBACK DATA:
-Drop from Top: 15.6% as of today. 25.4% max (on a closing basis).
-Trading Days since Top: 293-days.
The S&P 500 is 2.7% ABOVE its 200-dMA & 1.4% ABOVE its 50-dMA.
*I won’t call the correction over until the S&P 500 makes a new-high; however, evidence suggests the bottom was in the 3600 area.
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
QLD – 2xNasdaq 100
SSO – 2x S&P 500
XLK – Technology ETF.
XLE – Energy Sector ETF. It hasn’t been doing much recently, but Russia is cutting production and that should help the sector. We have a good dividend in the meantime.
BA – (Boeing) I am late on this one, but we’ll see.
XLY - Consumer Discretionary ETF.
SHY – Short term bonds. 30-day yield is 4.6%. (Trailing
1-year yield is 1.3%.) I’ll hold this, but if the market retests the lows, I’ll
sell it and buy stocks.)
TODAY’S COMMENT:
The S&P 500 bounced up from its 200-dMA last week so we can feel more bullish. In addition, the S&P 500 is basically flat and has been giving more bullish indications recently. It was sloping upward the day after Valentines day and again in early March.
I remain bullish and heavily invested in stocks.
Today, the daily spread of 20 Indicators (Bulls minus
Bears) declined from 7 to +5 (a positive number is bullish; negatives are
bearish); the 10-day smoothed sum that smooths the daily fluctuations improved
from +2 to +7. (The trend direction is more important than the actual number
for the 10-day value.) These numbers sometimes change after I post the blog
based on data that comes in late. Most of these 20 indicators are short-term so
they tend to bounce around a lot.
LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long Term NTSM indicator improved
to BUY: VIX is bullish; PRICE, VOLUME & SENTIMENT are neutral; the % of days
up over the last 100-days in bullish territory.
(The important BUY in this indicator was on 21 October,
7-days after the bottom. For my NTSM overall signal, I suggested that a
short-term buying opportunity occurred on 27 September (based on improved
market internals on the retest), although without market follow-thru, I was
unwilling to call a buy; however, I did close shorts and increased stock
holdings. I issued a Buy-Signal on 4 October, 6-days before the final bottom,
based on stronger market action that confirmed the market internals signal. The
NTSM sell-signal was issued 20 December, 8 sessions before the high of this
recent bear market, based on the bearish Friday rundown of indicators.)
Bottom line: I remain a BULL.
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
ETF ranking follows:
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
DOW 30 momentum ranking follows:
The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
MONDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
My basket of Market Internals improved to HOLD. (Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading. They are most useful when they diverge from the Index.)
...My current invested position
is about 75% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m usually about
50% invested in stocks.
I trade about 15-20% of the
total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. If I can see
a definitive bottom, I’ll add a lot more stocks to the portfolio using an
S&P 500 ETF.
My cmt: For me, it was always a matter of probability. Was it more likely a lab-event or did the virus emerge from a food market that has been in operation for a thousand years. Here’s what I said in April of 2020.
“We note that the EU was caught flat-footed by the virus too. That’s not a criticism; this event was very difficult to forecast. It wasn’t helped by the Chinese Communists who concealed the emergence of a new Coronavirus and put doctors in prison when they tried to publicize it. They also expelled US journalists who were reporting the news from China. While I don’t think the virus was manmade, I am suspicious that it may have escaped from a lab in Wuhan. If it didn’t, why were the commies trying to cover it up?”
“New orders for U.S.-manufactured goods fell in January, pulled down by a plunge in civilian aircraft bookings, but increases in machinery and a range of other products suggested that manufacturing could be regaining its footing... Factory orders dropped 1.6% after increasing 1.7% in December.” Story at...
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-factory-orders-fall-january-153622630.html
“...here to offer further comfort is Fundstrat’s head of research, Tom Lee. He says the market is ready for a strong eight week rally, a scenario that may catch out many investors because they remain nervous...” Story at...
Stocks will have an eight-week rally, and here are six reasons why, says Fundstrat’s Lee (msn.com)
-Monday the S&P 500 rose about 0.1% to 4048.
-VIX fell about 0.7% to 18.61.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury was 3.965%.
-Drop from Top: 15.6% as of today. 25.4% max (on a closing basis).
-Trading Days since Top: 293-days.
The S&P 500 is 2.7% ABOVE its 200-dMA & 1.4% ABOVE its 50-dMA.
*I won’t call the correction over until the S&P 500 makes a new-high; however, evidence suggests the bottom was in the 3600 area.
QLD – 2xNasdaq 100
SSO – 2x S&P 500
XLK – Technology ETF.
XLE – Energy Sector ETF. It hasn’t been doing much recently, but Russia is cutting production and that should help the sector. We have a good dividend in the meantime.
BA – (Boeing) I am late on this one, but we’ll see.
XLY - Consumer Discretionary ETF.
The S&P 500 bounced up from its 200-dMA last week so we can feel more bullish. In addition, the S&P 500 is basically flat and has been giving more bullish indications recently. It was sloping upward the day after Valentines day and again in early March.
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
ETF ranking follows:
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
DOW 30 momentum ranking follows:
The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
MONDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
My basket of Market Internals improved to HOLD. (Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading. They are most useful when they diverge from the Index.)
