“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
"President Biden wants to sacrifice seniors’
retirement savings to fund his political agenda...Both the Senate and the House
have now sent powerful, bipartisan rebukes of the Biden ESG agenda. I’m proud
to stand up for Americans’ retirement savings to stop this harmful rule."
- Sen. Mike Braun of Indiana
(The Biden administration Department of Labor rule encouraged private retirement plan fiduciaries to consider environment, social and governance (ESG) factors when making investment decisions for over 150 million Americans.)
My cmt: Biden will veto the Bill so I am not clear on where this rule stands. In any event, it is another case where Presidents rule by Executive Orders, or through their Executive Branch administrative rules, on issues that should be decided by the Legislature. Biden swore an oath to the Constitution of the US, but he ignores it (as did Trump and Obama before him).
"Rupert Murdoch [co-chairman of the Fox Corporation
and the executive chairman of News Corp.] should apologize to his viewers and
readers for his ridiculous defense of the 2020 Presidential Election...How many
forms of cheating and rigging does he have to see? He should also apologize to
those anchors who got it right, and fire the ones who got it wrong, or were
afraid to speak up (of which there were many!). It’s time to get rid of Fake
News, and call it like it is!" – Former President Donald (the Liar) Trump.
My cmt: I have written extensively about why the election wasn’t stolen including in a letter on the subject that was published in the WSJ. Please Donald, don’t get me started again!
JOBLESS CLAIMS (ABC News)
“The number of people applying for unemployment benefits in the U.S. fell for third straight week. That's good news for American workers, but potentially bad news in the fight against inflation by the Federal Reserve... Applications for jobless claims in the U.S. for the week ending February 25 fell to 190,000 from 192,000 the previous week...” Story at...
https://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory/applications-jobless-claims-fall-3rd-straight-week-97578803
PRODUCTIVITY / UNIT LABOR COSTS-REV (Briefing.com)
“Q4 productivity was revised down to 1.7% (Briefing.com consensus 2.5%) from the preliminary estimate of 3.0%. Unit labor costs were revised up to 3.2% (Briefing.com consensus 1.4%) from 1.1%...The key takeaway from the report is the elevated unit labor costs, which were up 6.3% from the same quarter a year ago (which is when the Fed first started raising rates). Moreover, unit labor costs in the nonfarm business sector were up 6.5% in 2022, which is the largest annual increase since 1982.” Story at...
https://www.briefing.com/calendars/economic/display-article?ArticleId=ER20230302083000Productivity-Rev.&FileName=prod.htm
TRADING UPDATE (RIA)
“If the market breaks support at the 200-DMA, it is advisable NOT to sell down exposure immediately. The reason is that there has been a lot of selling pressure by the time the market breaks a support level. With sellers likely exhausted short-term, we often see initial breaks of support retraced in the next couple of days. Be patient, and wait for a bounce to see if the broken support is retaken or a failed test.” Commentary at...
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/daily-market-commentary/
My cmt: Many traders want to see a move below the 200-day for consecutive days or a drop 3% below the 200-day to confirm a trend change.
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Thursday the S&P 500 rose about 0.8% to 3981.
-VIX dipped about 5% to 19.59.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.062%.
PULLBACK DATA:
-Drop from Top: 17% as of today. 25.4% max (on a closing basis).
-Trading Days since Top: 291-days.
The S&P 500 is 1% ABOVE its 200-dMA & at its 50-dMA.
*I won’t call the correction over until the S&P 500 makes a new-high; however, evidence suggests the bottom was in the 3600 area.
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
QLD – 2xNasdaq 100
SSO – 2x S&P 500
XLK – Technology ETF.
XLE – Energy Sector ETF. It hasn’t been doing much recently, but Russia is cutting production and that should help the sector. We have a good dividend in the meantime.
BA – (Boeing) I am late on this one, but we’ll see.
XLY - Consumer Discretionary ETF.
SHY – Short term bonds. 30-day yield is 4.2%. (Trailing
1-year yield is 1.3%.) I’ll hold this, but if the market retests the lows, I’ll
sell it and buy stocks.)
TODAY’S COMMENT:
Now that the Smart Money folks have managed to scare out the weak hands, the Smart Money is buying. At least that’s my guess. Spreads of XLU and XLI vs the S&P 500 never indicated that there was too much to worry about during the recent market weakness. It still looks that way, but I won’t take any victory laps yet. Markets could still reverse downward – it just doesn’t look like they will turn down to me. I caught the mid-day CNBC show today and the bears (most of the halftime committee) were giving Jim Lebenthal (the lone bull) hell. Hang in the Jim; I agree with you – it’s time to be bullish. Finally! A bullish looking daily chart!
(The Biden administration Department of Labor rule encouraged private retirement plan fiduciaries to consider environment, social and governance (ESG) factors when making investment decisions for over 150 million Americans.)
My cmt: Biden will veto the Bill so I am not clear on where this rule stands. In any event, it is another case where Presidents rule by Executive Orders, or through their Executive Branch administrative rules, on issues that should be decided by the Legislature. Biden swore an oath to the Constitution of the US, but he ignores it (as did Trump and Obama before him).
My cmt: I have written extensively about why the election wasn’t stolen including in a letter on the subject that was published in the WSJ. Please Donald, don’t get me started again!
“The number of people applying for unemployment benefits in the U.S. fell for third straight week. That's good news for American workers, but potentially bad news in the fight against inflation by the Federal Reserve... Applications for jobless claims in the U.S. for the week ending February 25 fell to 190,000 from 192,000 the previous week...” Story at...
https://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory/applications-jobless-claims-fall-3rd-straight-week-97578803
“Q4 productivity was revised down to 1.7% (Briefing.com consensus 2.5%) from the preliminary estimate of 3.0%. Unit labor costs were revised up to 3.2% (Briefing.com consensus 1.4%) from 1.1%...The key takeaway from the report is the elevated unit labor costs, which were up 6.3% from the same quarter a year ago (which is when the Fed first started raising rates). Moreover, unit labor costs in the nonfarm business sector were up 6.5% in 2022, which is the largest annual increase since 1982.” Story at...
https://www.briefing.com/calendars/economic/display-article?ArticleId=ER20230302083000Productivity-Rev.&FileName=prod.htm
“If the market breaks support at the 200-DMA, it is advisable NOT to sell down exposure immediately. The reason is that there has been a lot of selling pressure by the time the market breaks a support level. With sellers likely exhausted short-term, we often see initial breaks of support retraced in the next couple of days. Be patient, and wait for a bounce to see if the broken support is retaken or a failed test.” Commentary at...
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/daily-market-commentary/
My cmt: Many traders want to see a move below the 200-day for consecutive days or a drop 3% below the 200-day to confirm a trend change.
-Thursday the S&P 500 rose about 0.8% to 3981.
-VIX dipped about 5% to 19.59.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.062%.
-Drop from Top: 17% as of today. 25.4% max (on a closing basis).
-Trading Days since Top: 291-days.
The S&P 500 is 1% ABOVE its 200-dMA & at its 50-dMA.
*I won’t call the correction over until the S&P 500 makes a new-high; however, evidence suggests the bottom was in the 3600 area.
QLD – 2xNasdaq 100
SSO – 2x S&P 500
XLK – Technology ETF.
XLE – Energy Sector ETF. It hasn’t been doing much recently, but Russia is cutting production and that should help the sector. We have a good dividend in the meantime.
BA – (Boeing) I am late on this one, but we’ll see.
XLY - Consumer Discretionary ETF.
Now that the Smart Money folks have managed to scare out the weak hands, the Smart Money is buying. At least that’s my guess. Spreads of XLU and XLI vs the S&P 500 never indicated that there was too much to worry about during the recent market weakness. It still looks that way, but I won’t take any victory laps yet. Markets could still reverse downward – it just doesn’t look like they will turn down to me. I caught the mid-day CNBC show today and the bears (most of the halftime committee) were giving Jim Lebenthal (the lone bull) hell. Hang in the Jim; I agree with you – it’s time to be bullish. Finally! A bullish looking daily chart!
Today, (Thursday) unchanged volume was again very high. Still
looks like a bullish sign.
I remain bullish and heavily invested in stocks.
Today, the daily spread of 20 Indicators (Bulls minus
Bears) declined from -1 to -4 (a positive number is bullish; negatives are
bearish); the 10-day smoothed sum that smooths the daily fluctuations declined
from +2 to -5. (The trend direction is more important than the actual number
for the 10-day value.) These numbers sometimes change after I post the blog
based on data that comes in late. Most of these 20 indicators are short-term so
they tend to bounce around a lot.
LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long Term NTSM indicator
remained HOLD: PRICE is positive; VIX & SENTIMENT are neutral. VOLUME was negative.
(The important BUY in this indicator was on 21 October,
7-days after the bottom. For my NTSM overall signal, I suggested that a
short-term buying opportunity occurred on 27 September (based on improved
market internals on the retest), although without market follow-thru, I was
unwilling to call a buy; however, I did close shorts and increased stock
holdings. I issued a Buy-Signal on 4 October, 6-days before the final bottom,
based on stronger market action that confirmed the market internals signal. The
NTSM sell-signal was issued 20 December, 8 sessions before the high of this
recent bear market, based on the bearish Friday rundown of indicators.)
Bottom line: I remain a BULL, although somewhat more
cautious.
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
ETF ranking follows:
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING
OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
DOW 30 momentum ranking follows:
The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
THURSDAY MARKET INTERNALS
(NYSE DATA)
My basket of Market Internals remained SELL. (Market Internals are a
decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be
used alone for short term trading. They are most useful when they diverge from
the Index.)
...My current invested position
is about 75% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m usually about
50% invested in stocks.
I trade about 15-20% of the
total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. If I can see
a definitive bottom, I’ll add a lot more stocks to the portfolio using an
S&P 500 ETF.
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
ETF ranking follows:
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW 30 momentum ranking follows:
The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
