“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
“I always believed the virus leaked from a Wuhan lab, but
now that the FBI has confirmed it, I have my doubts.” - Ken
Matthew, WSJ Letters to the Editor.
JOBLESS CLAIMS (AP News)
“Fewer Americans applied for jobless claims last week as the labor market continues to thrive despite the Federal Reserve’s efforts to cool the economy and tamp down inflation. Applications for jobless claims in the U.S. for the week ending March 11 fell by 20,000 to 192,000 from 212,000 the previous week...” Story at...
https://apnews.com/article/unemployment-benefits-jobless-claims-layoffs-bc57454ba983e3a83845314479674c2e
HOUSING STARTS / PERMITS (CNN)
“US home building jumped higher in February, turning around after five consecutive months of falling. Housing starts, a measure of new home construction, rose by 9.8% in February from January. But that’s still down 18.4% from a year ago...Building permits, which track the number of new housing units granted permits, jumped up in February for the second month in a row, rising 13.8% from the revised January rate, and were down 17.9% from a year ago.” Story at...
https://www.cnn.com/2023/03/16/homes/new-home-starts-february/index.html
PHILADELPHIA FED INDEX (RTT News)
“The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia released a report on Thursday showing regional manufacturing activity contracted at a slightly slower rate in the month of March. The Philly Fed said its diffusion index for current activity inched up to a negative 23.2 in March from a negative 24.3 in February, with a negative reading indicating a contraction.” Story At...
https://www.rttnews.com/3350860/philly-fed-index-indicates-slightly-slower-contraction-in-march.aspx
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Thursday the S&P 500 rose about 1.8% to 3960.
-VIX fell about 12% to 22.99.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 3.584%.
PULLBACK DATA:
-Drop from Top: 17.4% as of today. 25.4% max (on a closing basis).
-Trading Days since Top: 301-days.
The S&P 500 is 0.6% ABOVE its 200-dMA & 1.2% BELOW its 50-dMA.
*I won’t call the correction over until the S&P 500 makes a new-high; however, evidence suggests the bottom was in the 3600 area.
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
I am not trading as much as in the past. You may wish to use the momentum charts and/or the Monday 40-day gain charts for trading the Dow stocks and ETFs.
QLD – 2xNasdaq 100
SSO – 2x S&P 500
XLK – Technology ETF.
XLE – Energy Sector ETF. It hasn’t been doing much recently, but Russia is cutting production and that should help the sector. We have a good dividend in the meantime.
BA – (Boeing) I am late on this one, but we’ll see. They have more work than they can handle and are hirering. They should do well going forward.
XLY - Consumer Discretionary ETF.
SHY – Short term bonds. 30-day yield is 4.6%. (Trailing
1-year yield is 1.3%.) I’ll hold this, but if the market retests the lows, I’ll
sell it and buy stocks.)
TODAY’S COMMENT:
I started keeping volume data about 8-years ago. Today, (Thursday) had the Highest unchanged-volume I have ever seen. As I’ve often said, many believe that high, unchanged-volume suggests investor confusion at market turning points. Recently, when we saw this indicator near the lower trend line, (as it is now) the S&P 500 bounced higher. It does look bullish as a sign for the next couple of weeks. For the here and now, today was “statistically significant.” That just means that the price-volume move exceeded my statistical parameters. Statistics show that a statistically-significant, up-day is followed by a down-day about 60% of the time, so we might expect tomorrow to be a down day. Daily swings are hard to predict in normal conditions; now, with big daily swings in markets, it’s even harder.
S&P 500 is now above its 200-dMA and that’s a nice
bullish sign. Next, we need to break above the 50-dMA.
There are still a fair number of bear signs out there, so
I don’t think the markets are out of the woods yet.
The Friday Rundown of indicators should be telling. Someday, I’ll try to automate the Friday
Rundown so I can get a daily reading. That would take quite a bit of coding and
I’ve gotten lazy. Also, I think doing the numbers once a week has value. I already
spend too much time obsessing over this stuff – just ask my wife.
Today, the daily spread of 20 Indicators (Bulls minus
Bears) declined from -3 to -4 (a positive number is bullish; negatives are
bearish); the 10-day smoothed sum that smooths the daily fluctuations remained
-16. (The trend direction is more important than the actual number for the
10-day value.) These numbers sometimes change after I post the blog based on
data that comes in late. Most of these 20 indicators are short-term so they tend
to bounce around a lot.
LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long Term NTSM indicator was
HOLD: VIX, VOLUME, PRICE & SENTIMENT are neutral
(The important BUY in this indicator was on 21 October,
7-days after the bottom. For my NTSM overall signal, I suggested that a
short-term buying opportunity occurred on 27 September (based on improved
market internals on the retest), although without market follow-thru, I was
unwilling to call a buy; however, I did close shorts and increased stock
holdings. I issued a Buy-Signal on 4 October, 6-days before the final bottom,
based on stronger market action that confirmed the market internals signal. The
NTSM sell-signal was issued 20 December, 8 sessions before the high of this
recent bear market, based on the bearish Friday rundown of indicators.)
Bottom line: I am a cautious bull. The S&P 500 has
climbed back above its 200-dMA; let’s see if it can break above its 50-dMA.
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
ETF ranking follows:
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING
OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
DOW 30 momentum ranking follows:
The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
THURSDAY MARKET INTERNALS
(NYSE DATA)
My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (Market Internals are a
decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be
used alone for short term trading. They are most useful when they diverge from
the Index.)
...My current invested
position is about 75% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m
usually about 50% invested in stocks.
I trade about 15-20% of the
total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. If I can see
a definitive bottom, I’ll add a lot more stocks to the portfolio using an
S&P 500 ETF.
“Fewer Americans applied for jobless claims last week as the labor market continues to thrive despite the Federal Reserve’s efforts to cool the economy and tamp down inflation. Applications for jobless claims in the U.S. for the week ending March 11 fell by 20,000 to 192,000 from 212,000 the previous week...” Story at...
https://apnews.com/article/unemployment-benefits-jobless-claims-layoffs-bc57454ba983e3a83845314479674c2e
“US home building jumped higher in February, turning around after five consecutive months of falling. Housing starts, a measure of new home construction, rose by 9.8% in February from January. But that’s still down 18.4% from a year ago...Building permits, which track the number of new housing units granted permits, jumped up in February for the second month in a row, rising 13.8% from the revised January rate, and were down 17.9% from a year ago.” Story at...
https://www.cnn.com/2023/03/16/homes/new-home-starts-february/index.html
“The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia released a report on Thursday showing regional manufacturing activity contracted at a slightly slower rate in the month of March. The Philly Fed said its diffusion index for current activity inched up to a negative 23.2 in March from a negative 24.3 in February, with a negative reading indicating a contraction.” Story At...
https://www.rttnews.com/3350860/philly-fed-index-indicates-slightly-slower-contraction-in-march.aspx
-Thursday the S&P 500 rose about 1.8% to 3960.
-VIX fell about 12% to 22.99.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 3.584%.
-Drop from Top: 17.4% as of today. 25.4% max (on a closing basis).
-Trading Days since Top: 301-days.
The S&P 500 is 0.6% ABOVE its 200-dMA & 1.2% BELOW its 50-dMA.
*I won’t call the correction over until the S&P 500 makes a new-high; however, evidence suggests the bottom was in the 3600 area.
I am not trading as much as in the past. You may wish to use the momentum charts and/or the Monday 40-day gain charts for trading the Dow stocks and ETFs.
QLD – 2xNasdaq 100
SSO – 2x S&P 500
XLK – Technology ETF.
XLE – Energy Sector ETF. It hasn’t been doing much recently, but Russia is cutting production and that should help the sector. We have a good dividend in the meantime.
BA – (Boeing) I am late on this one, but we’ll see. They have more work than they can handle and are hirering. They should do well going forward.
XLY - Consumer Discretionary ETF.
I started keeping volume data about 8-years ago. Today, (Thursday) had the Highest unchanged-volume I have ever seen. As I’ve often said, many believe that high, unchanged-volume suggests investor confusion at market turning points. Recently, when we saw this indicator near the lower trend line, (as it is now) the S&P 500 bounced higher. It does look bullish as a sign for the next couple of weeks. For the here and now, today was “statistically significant.” That just means that the price-volume move exceeded my statistical parameters. Statistics show that a statistically-significant, up-day is followed by a down-day about 60% of the time, so we might expect tomorrow to be a down day. Daily swings are hard to predict in normal conditions; now, with big daily swings in markets, it’s even harder.
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
ETF ranking follows:
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW 30 momentum ranking follows:
The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
