“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
CPI / CORE CPI (CNBC)
“The consumer price index, a closely watched inflation gauge, increased 0.1% in November, and was up 3.1% from a year ago... While the monthly rate indicated a pickup from the flat CPI reading in October, the annual rate showed another decline after hitting 3.2% a month earlier. Excluding volatile food and energy prices, the core CPI increased 0.3% on the month and 4% from a year ago. Both numbers were in line with estimates...”
Chart and Story at...
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/12/12/cpi-inflation-report-november-2023.html
NFIB SMALL BUSINESS OPTIMISM (NFIB)
“NFIB’s Small Business Optimism Index decreased 0.1 point in November to 90.6, which marks the 23rd consecutive month below the 50-year average of 98. Twenty-two percent of owners reported that inflation was their single most important problem in operating their business, unchanged from October but 10 points lower than this time last year.” Press release at...
https://www.nfib.com/content/press-release/economy/small-business-owners-pessimistic-about-future-business-conditions/
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Tuesday the S&P 500 rose about 0.5% to 4644. (This is another new 52-week high but not an all-time high.)
-VIX fell about 24% to 12.07.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury dipped to 4.193%.
PULLBACK DATA:
-Drop from Top: 3.3%. 25.4% max (on a closing basis).
-Trading Days since All-Time Top: 488-days. (The top was 3 January 2022.)
The S&P 500 is 7.8% ABOVE its 200-dMA and 5.5% ABOVE its 50-dMA.
*I won’t call the correction over until the S&P 500 makes a new-high; however, evidence suggests the major bear-market bottom (25% decline) was in the 3600 area and we called a buy on 4 October 2022.
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
XLK – Technology ETF (holding since the October 2022 lows).
XLY - Consumer Discretionary ETF. (Holding since the October 2022 lows - I bought more XLY 8/21/23.)
I took profits and then reestablished positions as
follows:
SSO – 2x S&P 500 ETF. Added 8/24/23.
QLD – Added 8/30/23.
INTC – Added 12/6/2023.
BA – Added 12/6/2023.
DWCPF - Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market
Index. – Added 12/7/2023. This is a large position in my retirement account
betting on Small Caps.
TODAY’S COMMENT:
Bollinger Bands are overbought on the S&P 500. We also note that the Index has gotten too far ahead of overall breadth on the NYSE. Those are two indicators suggesting a slowdown, but neither are perfect indicators and both can remain bearsih for extended times before there is a pullback. Finally, we use an ensemble of indicators to make sell-calls and indicators remain bullish with at least 20 bull-signs and very few bear signs. All in all – I am still in bullish, overinvested mode.
The daily spread of 20 Indicators (Bulls minus Bears) improved
from +5 to +10 (a positive number is bullish; negatives are bearish); the
10-day smoothed sum that smooths the daily fluctuations improved from +37
to +42. (The trend direction is more important than the actual number for the
10-day value.) These numbers sometimes change after I post the blog based on
data that comes in late. Most of these 20 indicators are short-term so they
tend to bounce around a lot.
LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long Term NTSM indicator
remained BUY: PRICE & VIX are bullish; VOLUME & SENTIMENT are neutral.
(The important major BUY in this indicator was on 21
October 2022, 7-days after the bear-market bottom. For my NTSM overall signal,
I suggested that a short-term buying opportunity occurred on 27 September
(based on improved market internals on the retest), although without market
follow-thru, I was unwilling to call a buy; however, I did close shorts and
increased stock holdings. I issued a Buy-Signal on 4 October, 6-days before the
final bottom, based on stronger market action that confirmed the market internals
signal. The NTSM sell-signal was issued 21 December, 9 sessions before the high
of this recent bear market, based on the bearish “Friday Rundown” of
indicators.)
BOTTOM LINE
I remain bullish.
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
ETF ranking follows:
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING
OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
DOW 30 momentum ranking follows:
The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
TUESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE
DATA)
My basket of Market Internals improved to BUY. (My basket of Market
Internals is a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but
should not be used alone for short term trading. They are most useful when they
diverge from the Index.)
“The consumer price index, a closely watched inflation gauge, increased 0.1% in November, and was up 3.1% from a year ago... While the monthly rate indicated a pickup from the flat CPI reading in October, the annual rate showed another decline after hitting 3.2% a month earlier. Excluding volatile food and energy prices, the core CPI increased 0.3% on the month and 4% from a year ago. Both numbers were in line with estimates...”
Chart and Story at...
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/12/12/cpi-inflation-report-november-2023.html
“NFIB’s Small Business Optimism Index decreased 0.1 point in November to 90.6, which marks the 23rd consecutive month below the 50-year average of 98. Twenty-two percent of owners reported that inflation was their single most important problem in operating their business, unchanged from October but 10 points lower than this time last year.” Press release at...
https://www.nfib.com/content/press-release/economy/small-business-owners-pessimistic-about-future-business-conditions/
-Tuesday the S&P 500 rose about 0.5% to 4644. (This is another new 52-week high but not an all-time high.)
-VIX fell about 24% to 12.07.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury dipped to 4.193%.
-Drop from Top: 3.3%. 25.4% max (on a closing basis).
-Trading Days since All-Time Top: 488-days. (The top was 3 January 2022.)
The S&P 500 is 7.8% ABOVE its 200-dMA and 5.5% ABOVE its 50-dMA.
*I won’t call the correction over until the S&P 500 makes a new-high; however, evidence suggests the major bear-market bottom (25% decline) was in the 3600 area and we called a buy on 4 October 2022.
XLK – Technology ETF (holding since the October 2022 lows).
XLY - Consumer Discretionary ETF. (Holding since the October 2022 lows - I bought more XLY 8/21/23.)
SSO – 2x S&P 500 ETF. Added 8/24/23.
QLD – Added 8/30/23.
BA – Added 12/6/2023.
Bollinger Bands are overbought on the S&P 500. We also note that the Index has gotten too far ahead of overall breadth on the NYSE. Those are two indicators suggesting a slowdown, but neither are perfect indicators and both can remain bearsih for extended times before there is a pullback. Finally, we use an ensemble of indicators to make sell-calls and indicators remain bullish with at least 20 bull-signs and very few bear signs. All in all – I am still in bullish, overinvested mode.
I remain bullish.
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
ETF ranking follows:
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW 30 momentum ranking follows:
The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
