Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
CHRISTMAS QUIZ: Which singer popularized the carol whose
title means “Merry Christmas” in Spanish?
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Tuesday the S&P 500 rose about 0.4% to 4775.
-VIX dipped about 2% to 12.99.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury slipped to 3.882%.
PULLBACK DATA:
-Drop from Top: 0.5%. 25.4% max (on a closing basis).
-Trading Days since All-Time Top: 497-days. (The top was
3 January 2022.)
The S&P 500 is 10% ABOVE its 200-dMA and 6.6% ABOVE
its 50-dMA.
*I won’t call the correction over until the S&P 500
makes a new-high; however, evidence suggests the major bear-market bottom of
the 25% decline was in the 3600 area and we called a buy on 4 October 2022.
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
XLK – Technology ETF (holding since the October 2022
lows).
XLY - Consumer Discretionary ETF. (Holding since the
October 2022 lows - I bought more XLY 8/21/23.)
INTC – Added 12/6/2023.
BA – Added 12/6/2023.
DWCPF - Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market
Index. – Added 12/7/2023. This is a large position in my retirement account
betting on Small Caps.
TODAY’S COMMENT:
Overbought / Oversold Index
is overbought. This is a breadth
indicator that makes very short-term calls. Other indicators, like Bollinger
Bands and RSI are stretched, but not yet signaling a top so no reason to
worry. Even if we do see top indication,
it is not likely to be more than a 3-5% pullback.
The daily spread of 20 Indicators (Bulls minus Bears) remained
+10 (a positive number is bullish; negatives are bearish); the 10-day smoothed
sum that smooths the daily fluctuations improved from +103 to +108. (The
trend direction is more important than the actual number for the 10-day value.)
These numbers sometimes change after I post the blog based on data that comes
in late. Most of these 20 indicators are short-term so they tend to bounce
around a lot.
LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long Term NTSM indicator
remained BUY: PRICE, VOLUME & VIX are bullish; SENTIMENT is neutral. (One
warning: The Long-Term Indicator is not a good top-indicator. It can signal BUY
at a top.)
(The important major BUY in this indicator was on 21
October 2022, 7-days after the bear-market bottom. For my NTSM overall signal,
I suggested that a short-term buying opportunity occurred on 27 September
(based on improved market internals on the retest), although without market
follow-thru, I was unwilling to call a buy; however, I did close shorts and
increased stock holdings. I issued a Buy-Signal on 4 October, 6-days before the
final bottom, based on stronger market action that confirmed the market internals
signal. The NTSM sell-signal was issued 21 December, 9 sessions before the high
of this recent bear market, based on the bearish “Friday Rundown” of
indicators.)
BOTTOM LINE
I remain bullish.
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
ETF ranking follows:
The top ranked ETF receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading
ETF.
*For additional background on
the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING
OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
DOW 30 momentum ranking
follows:
The top ranked Stock receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM
Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
TUESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE
DATA)
My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket of Market
Internals is a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but
should not be used alone for short term trading. They are most useful when they
diverge from the Index.) THIS INDICATOR
GET’S CONFUSED WHEN VOLUMES ARE CONSISTENTLY LOW, LIKE DURING THE HOLIDAYS.
...My current invested
position is about 65% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m
usually about 50% invested in stocks. I’m “over invested” now expecting new,
all-time highs this year. That burns all the cash. I have about 25% of the portfolio in bonds.
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the
momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see a definitive bottom, I add a
lot more stocks to the portfolio using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in
October.
CHRISTMAS QUIZ: Ans. "Feliz Navidad" (Spanish: lit. transl. "Merry
Christmas") is a Christmas
song written and first recorded in 1970 by Puerto Rican
singer-songwriter José
Feliciano... In 2010, the 1970 recording of "Feliz
Navidad" on RCA Victor Records by José
Feliciano was inducted into the Grammy Hall of Fame... Feliciano's 1970
recording of "Feliz Navidad" (in which he plays both an acoustic
guitar and a Puerto Rican cuatro) is one of the most
downloaded and aired Christmas songs in the United States and Canada.” –
Wikipedia.
