Wednesday, June 26, 2024

Home Sales ... Crude Inventories ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
 
“...Development, however, requires a reliable power source, fossil fuels. Mr. Gates’s [Bill Gates, Co-founder Microsoft] support of green energy is a luxury of the rich while wood and charcoal continue to be used for cooking and heating in underdeveloped countries. This has resulted in millions of premature deaths. Abolishing fossil fuels will slow and even halt the progress of developing countries, continuing the cycle of extreme poverty and subsequent deaths.
We need a president who will stop the quixotic march toward net zero. That would be a start toward a rational conversation on the importance of fossil fuels. Mr. Gates’s support for President Biden and his green agenda will cause more harm to underdeveloped countries than any epidemic.” - Ken Dropek, WSJ Letters. From...
https://www.wsj.com/articles/want-to-help-the-world-poor-junk-net-zero-cfa5928a?mod=letterstoeditor_article_pos7
 
“We can only hope that Steven Koonin is right in predicting the demise of climate-change alarmism and its insidious war on fossil-fuel energy (“The ‘Climate Crisis’ Fades Out,” op-ed, June 11). Mr. Koonin rightly argues that “fossil fuels continue to provide about 80% of the world’s energy,” despite decades of subsidies and mandates for renewables.
Without a scalable, cost-effective energy substitute, the push to reach zero emissions by midcentury is nothing short of an economic suicide pact. When the decarbonization craze eventually fades into oblivion, it will join eugenics, the population-bomb fears, and the Y2K hysteria in the trash bin of junk-science history.” - John DiChiara, WSJ Letters. From...
https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-junk-science-of-the-climate-crisis-craze-power-5d40e3ed?mod=letterstoeditor_article_pos2
 
NEW HOME SALES / BUILDING PERMITS (CNN)
“New home sales, which make up only about 10% of the market, fell 11.3% in May from the prior month, to 619,000, according to government data released Wednesday. That was the steepest monthly decline since September 2022 and marks the lowest level since November... Building permits, seen as a bellwether of future construction, dipped 3.8%.” Story at...
https://www.cnn.com/2024/06/26/economy/us-new-home-sales-may/index.html
 
EIA CRUDE INVENTORIES (EIA)
“U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased by 3.6 million barrels from the previous week. At 460.7 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are about 2% below the five year average for this time of year.” Report at...
https://ir.eia.gov/wpsr/wpsrsummary.pdf
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Wednesday the S&P 500 rose about 0.2% to 5478.
-VIX declined about 2% to 12.54.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.329% (compared to this time yesterday).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
UWM – Added 5/2/2024; SOLD 6/25/2024
QLD – Added 4/29/2024; SOLD 6/25/2024
XLK – Holding since the October 2022 lows.
 
DWCPF - Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market Index. – Added 12/7/2023 when I sold the S&P 500.
“The Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market Index, also known as the DWCPF, is a widely used financial index that provides a comprehensive measure of the US equity market. The DWCPF includes all US stocks that are not included in the Dow Jones US Total Stock Market Index, which comprises large-cap and mid-cap companies. As a result, the DWCPF provides a complete picture of the US stock market, including small-cap and micro-cap companies, which are often overlooked by other indexes.” From...
https://fi.money/blog/posts/what-is-dow-jones-u-s-completion-total-stock-market-index-dwcpf
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
The Bull/Bear Spread (Bull Indicators minus Bear Indicators) was 11 Bear-signs and 12-Bull. (The rest are neutral. It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of those are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.) The 10-dMA of spread (purple line in the chart below) remained flat and that doesn’t change the apparent rollover that started a few sessions ago.

TODAY’S COMMENT:
The Bull/Bear, 50-Indicator spread improved slightly from -3 to +1 (1 more Bull indicator than Bear indicators). This remains a Neutral indication.
 
The S&P 500 is 12.8% above the 200-dMA and that remains stretched. The bear sign is greater than 12%.
 
On a more positive note, RSI returned to neutral after 5 days signaling overbought; the 10-dMA of issues advancing on the NYSE moved above 50% today, indicating that more than half of the issues have been advancing over the last 2-weeks; my Money Trend indicator is bullish.
 
I sold leveraged positions and half my Tech ETF (XLK) yesterday. I won’t reset those positions until we see a clear sign of trend based on indicators. I suspect the markets will retreat to the lower trend line, around the 50-dMA at 5250. I am not confident in that prediction because we have seen a narrow advance suggesting a 10% decline.  It will be obviously important to see broadening of markets so maybe we can set aside those larger correction worries.  
 
LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long Term NTSM indicator remained HOLD: PRICE is bullish; VOLUME, VIX & SENTIMENT is neutral.
(The Long-Term Indicator is not a good top-indicator. It can signal BUY at a top.)
 
(The important major BUY in this indicator was on 21 October 2022, 7-days after the bear-market bottom. For my NTSM overall signal, I suggested that a short-term buying opportunity occurred on 27 September (based on improved market internals on the retest), although without market follow-thru, I was unwilling to call a buy; however, I did close shorts and increased stock holdings. I issued a Buy-Signal on 4 October, 6-days before the final bottom, based on stronger market action that confirmed the market internals signal. The NTSM sell-signal was issued 21 December, 9 sessions before the high of this recent bear market, based on the bearish “Friday Rundown” of indicators.)
 
BOTTOM LINE
I am Neutral on the market as a whole. The trend in indicators has been down recently and price has been relatively flat. The most likely market move seems to be down, but it is not a given.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
 

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
 

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
 
WEDNESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD.
(My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading. They are most useful when they diverge from the Index.) 
 
 
...My current invested position is about 55% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. (I’ll need to recalculate this.) I’m usually about 50% invested in stocks, so this is a bullish, over-invested position. 75% is my max stock allocation so I have some cash now.
 
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see a definitive bottom, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.