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“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
 
APOLOGY FOR ‘2000 MULES (WSJ)
“The movie “2000 Mules” was supposed to be the definitive proof that Democrats stole the 2020 election from President Trump. Last week it was quietly retracted. Salem Media Group, which co-produced this Trumpian fantasy mockumentary, ceased distribution of the film and issued an apology to Mark Andrews, one of the Georgia voters depicted as an illegal ballot “mule.”... Salem aims to shift blame to the film’s purported vote-fraud-fighting heroes. “We relied on representations made to us by Dinesh D’Souza and True the Vote, Inc. (‘TTV’) that the individuals depicted in the videos provided to us by TTV, including Mr. Andrews, illegally deposited ballots,” the company said. “We have learned that the Georgia Bureau of Investigation has cleared Mr. Andrews of illegal voting activity in connection with the event depicted.” – WSJ Editorial staff at...
https://www.wsj.com/articles/2000-mules-salem-media-lawsuit-mark-andrews-dinesh-dsouza-2020-election-true-the-vote-1565ace0
My cmt: The movie is a complete fake. Here are a couple of my previous comments on the subject...
 
“A conservative group has told a Georgia judge that it doesn't have evidence to support its claims of illegal ballot stuffing during the 2020 general election and a runoff two months later. Texas-based True the Vote filed complaints with Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger in 2021, including one in which it said it had obtained “a detailed account of coordinated efforts to collect and deposit ballots in drop boxes across metro Atlanta” during the November 2020 election and a January 2021 runoff.” Story at...
Conservative group tells judge it has no evidence to back its claims of Georgia ballot stuffing (msn.com)
My cmt: The movie, “2000 Mules” is a complete fake.  The GBI (Georgia Bureau of Investigation) stated that the claims of ballot stuffing by True the Vote and the 2000 Mules movie were not supported by the evidence provided in the movie. The crazy thing is that during the 2020 election, Georgia matched absentee ballot signatures to registrations and signatures on file.  Even if there had been ballot stuffing, the fake ballots would have been thrown out due to lack of registration and/or non-matching signatures.
 
“About one-third of U.S. adults say they believe President Biden was not legitimately elected president of the United States in 2020, according a poll released this week.” - The Hill at...
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4384619-one-third-of-americans-say-biden-election-illegitimate/
My cmt: 20% of Americans are complete idiots for believing there is a Government/Taylor Swift conspiracy to elect Joe Biden. Now 30% believe the Trump stolen election absurdity. Let’s hope the 20% crazies fall within the 30% nut-jobs otherwise we’d have to add them together.  50% of Americans can’t be idiots, can they?
 
"Think of how stupid the average person is, and realize half of them are stupider than that."- George Carlin
 
JOBS REPORT / UNEMPLOYMENT RATE (CNBC)
“Nonfarm payrolls expanded by 272,000 for the month, up from 165,000 in April and well ahead of the Dow Jones consensus estimate... the unemployment rate rose to 4%, the first time it has breached that level since January 2022...” Story at...
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/06/07/jobs-report-may-2024-us-job-gains-totaled-272000-in-may.html
My cmt: The possibility of a June Fed rate cut that some had hoped for is now off the table. I don’t think there were too many who actually expected a cut in June. 
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Friday the S&P 500 slipped about 0.1% to 5347.
-VIX declined about 3% to 12.22.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.434%.
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
UWM – Added 5/2/2024
QLD – Added 4/29/2024
SSO – Added 4/29/2024.
XLE – Added 4/24/2024
 
CRM – Added 1/22/2024.
XLK – Technology ETF (holding since the October 2022 lows). I don’t want to pay taxes on this gain, so I am holding this position.
 
DWCPF - Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market Index. – Added 12/7/2023 when I sold the S&P 500.
“The Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market Index, also known as the DWCPF, is a widely used financial index that provides a comprehensive measure of the US equity market. The DWCPF includes all US stocks that are not included in the Dow Jones US Total Stock Market Index, which comprises large-cap and mid-cap companies. As a result, the DWCPF provides a complete picture of the US stock market, including small-cap and micro-cap companies, which are often overlooked by other indexes.” From...
https://fi.money/blog/posts/what-is-dow-jones-u-s-completion-total-stock-market-index-dwcpf
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
The Bull/Bear Spread (Bull Indicators minus Bear Indicators) deteriorated, but remained on the bullish side (red line in the chart below). Today, there were 9 Bear-signs and 15-Bull. (The rest are neutral. It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of those are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.) The 10-dMA of spread (purple line in the chart below) is still moving higher, a bullish sign.

TODAY’S COMMENT:
Internals were weak today, but the 10-dMA of the Bull-Bear indicator spread continued to improve and that’s an important bullish sign. 

The 10-dMA of issues advancing on the NYSE is now above 50% indicating that more than half of the issues have been up over the last two weeks. While that is good news, there are other breadth signs that are worrisome.
 
52-week new-lows outpaced 52-week new-highs today, and both short-term and long-term new-high data are now bearish. The 52-week new-high/new-low data can be slow to react so we may find these numbers improve. If not, I’ll start to worry.
 
While I am bullish, the S&P 500 is 11.5% above its 200-dMA. (The Bear indicator is 12% above the 200-day.) The markets can get much higher than 12% above the 200-day, but usually the 12% level can be a limiter for the S&P 500. That’s cautionary, but unless more indicators turn bearish, I won’t worry about this one.
 
All this just reinforces my philosophy of technical analysis – follow multiple indicators. I used to be looking for the perfect indicator, but I’ve decided that is folly.  There is no one indicator that is always right, or is even “the best.”
 
LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long Term NTSM indicator remained HOLD: PRICE is bullish; VOLUME, VIX & SENTIMENT are neutral.
(The Long-Term Indicator is not a good top-indicator. It can signal BUY at a top.)
 
(The important major BUY in this indicator was on 21 October 2022, 7-days after the bear-market bottom. For my NTSM overall signal, I suggested that a short-term buying opportunity occurred on 27 September (based on improved market internals on the retest), although without market follow-thru, I was unwilling to call a buy; however, I did close shorts and increased stock holdings. I issued a Buy-Signal on 4 October, 6-days before the final bottom, based on stronger market action that confirmed the market internals signal. The NTSM sell-signal was issued 21 December, 9 sessions before the high of this recent bear market, based on the bearish “Friday Rundown” of indicators.)
 
BOTTOM LINE
I am bullish, but watching indicators closely.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
 

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
 

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
 
FRIDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading. They are most useful when they diverge from the Index.) 
 

...My current invested position is about 75% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m usually about 50% invested in stocks, so this is a bullish, over-invested position. This is my max % for stock allocation.
 

I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see a definitive bottom, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.