Job Openings ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ..

 

“No. No. That’s not true...That’s impossible.”

“Search your feelings, you know it to be true.”

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
 
"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my 45 years." -  Bill Smead, Smead Value Fund (SMVLX), May 2025.
 
DEMOCRATS CONTINUE TO BLACKMAIL THE COUNTRY (CNN)
“Some of the most prominent liberals in Congress are seething at an emerging deal to end the 35-day government funding stalemate without a clear win for Democrats, showcasing a massive splinter within the party that will soon be on full display.
The divide among Democrats inside the Capitol over strategy offers a gloomy portrait of how a possible deal could land in the broader party — likely spurring ugly infighting at a critical moment as Democrats are seeking to define their future ahead of the pivotal 2026 midterms.” Story at...
Outraged liberals warn Democratic leaders not to cave on shutdown
My cmt: By Senate rules, it takes 60 votes to pass anything in the Senate. So even though the Republicans have a majority, they cannot end the shutdown unless some Democrats vote with the Republicans. The Republicans have been voting to keep Government running since day one.
 
IF SHUTDOWN CONTINUES – “MASS CHAOS” IN AIR TRAVEL IS POSSIBLE (Reuters)
“U.S. Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy warned on Tuesday that if the federal government shutdown continues another week it could lead to "mass chaos" and could force him to close some of the national airspace to air traffic, a drastic move that could upend American aviation.” Story at...
Shutdown may force US to close some airspace next week, official sees 'mass chaos'
 
FACT SET EARNINGS INSIGHT (FACTSET - Excerpt)
“-Earnings Growth: For Q3 2025, the blended (year-over-year) earnings growth rate for the S&P 500 is 10.7%. If 10.7% is the actual growth rate for the quarter, it will mark the 4th consecutive quarter of double-digit earnings growth for the index...
-...Earnings Guidance: For Q4 2025, 28 S&P 500 companies have issued negative EPS guidance and 21 S&P 500 companies have issued positive EPS guidance.
-Valuation: The forward 12-month P/E ratio for the S&P 500 is 22.9. This P/E ratio is above the 5-year average (19.9) and above the 10-year average (18.6).” Report at...
https://advantage.factset.com/hubfs/Website/Resources%20Section/Research%20Desk/Earnings%20Insight/EarningsInsight_103125.pdf
 
JOB OPENINGS LOWEST IN FOUR YEARS (CNBC)
“Employment opportunities hit their lowest level in more than 4½ years as October came to a close and the government shutdown dragged on, according to data from jobs site Indeed... Under normal conditions, the BLS on Tuesday would have reported its monthly Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, a measure that Federal Reserve officials watch closely for indications of slack in the jobs market. With the shutdown on the precipice of being the longest in history, economists and policymakers are left to look at alternative data for big-picture indicators.” Story at...
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/11/04/job-openings-in-october-slumped-to-the-lowest-level-since-early-february-indeed-measure-shows.html
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Tuesday the S&P 500 declined about 1.2% to 6772.
-VIX rose about 11% to 19.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.07% (compared to about this time prior market day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
SPY – Added 8/26/2025
XLK – Added 8/26/2025
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 16 gave Bear-signs and 7 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined from -7 to -9 (9 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators), a BEARISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) smooths daily fluctuations; it continued down, a BEARSH sign.
 
Even though internals were bad today (declining issues twice advancing issues; declining volume more than 3 times advancing volume; New-lows were more than twice new-highs) there were some signs that weren’t completely bearish:
-We didn’t see another Hindenburg Omen. Four in a row was bad enough. The nature of the Hindenburg requires that it remain place until the McClellan Oscillator tuns positive, i.e., the Hindenburg Omen is still sending a bearish signal.
 
-Tuesday was a statistically significant down-day. That just means that the price-volume move exceeded my statistical parameters. Statistics show that a statistically-significant, down-day is followed by an up-day about 60% of the time,
 
-The S&P 500 closed near its lower trend line. - a line of support - although the Index is still 1.8% above its 50-dMA and that is usually in the vicinity of the lower trendline.
 
It is difficult to analyze a falling market that didn’t make a blow-off top. If the market just drifts down, do we go or do we stay? I am inclined to stay until lines of support fail and indicators clearly collapse. As noted yesterday, if we do see a correction, I expect it to be less than 10% based on past history.
 
BOTTOM LINE
I’m neutral, leaning bearish, but I won’t make any portfolio changes at this point.  
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
 

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
 
TUESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals declined to SELL. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
 
 
 

My current invested position is about 50% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs.
50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (75% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                             
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.