“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
EXPECTATIONS FOR BLACK FRIDAY 2025 (NBC News)
“All the experts I talked to agree that Black Friday 2025 will be another record-breaking sale, and it’s likely to set the overall holiday shopping season up for success. Adobe forecasts Black Friday sales to be up about 8.3% year-over-year ($10.8 billion in 2024 and $11.7 billion in 2025), and the NRF expects overall holiday sales to surpass $1 trillion for the first time ever.” – Zoe Malin, reporter. Story at…
https://www.nbcnews.com/select/shopping/evolution-black-friday-ncna1278024
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Friday the S&P 500 rose about 0.5% to 6849.
-VIX fell about 7% to 16.35.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.017% (compared to about this time prior market day).
MY TRADING POSITIONS
XLK – Added 11/26/2025
Technology has been the loser during this pullback. It has room to run.
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 6 gave Bear-signs and 16 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved from -2 to +10 (10 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators), a BULLISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) smooths daily fluctuations; it reversed higher, a BULLISH sign.
Indicators are confirming our belief that the bottom is
in for the recent market weakness.
As noted previously: Based on market action based on an
expected Fed rate cut in December, I added to stocks Wednesday. I plan to add
more Monday. My suspicion is that we’ll see some short-term reversal next week
as the pros come back to work and take profits.
The S&P 500 is 0.6% below its all-time high.
BOTTOM LINE
I’m bullish and will be adding stock holdings to return to a fully invested position.
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
The top ranked ETF receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading
ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING
OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked Stock receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
FRIDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
My basket of Market Internals improved to BUY. (My basket
of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful
when it diverges from the Index.)
As of Wednesday, 26 November,
my invested position is about 45% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs.
50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (75% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.
-Friday the S&P 500 rose about 0.5% to 6849.
-VIX fell about 7% to 16.35.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.017% (compared to about this time prior market day).
XLK – Added 11/26/2025
Technology has been the loser during this pullback. It has room to run.
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 6 gave Bear-signs and 16 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved from -2 to +10 (10 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators), a BULLISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) smooths daily fluctuations; it reversed higher, a BULLISH sign.
I’m bullish and will be adding stock holdings to return to a fully invested position.
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (75% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.
