Friday, March 20, 2026

… Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
   
"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my 45 years." -  Bill Smead, Smead Value Fund (SMVLX), May 2025.”
 
LAW KEPT ODU FROM KNOWING JALLOH WAS A TERRORIST (WTKR-News 3)
“Mohamed Bailor Jalloh was able to re-enroll at Old Dominion University after serving federal prison time for supporting ISIS because Virginia law prohibits public universities from asking applicants about their criminal history. Jalloh, 36, shot and killed ROTC instructor Lieutenant Colonel Brandon Shah and wounded two others in a classroom at ODU on March 12, 2026. He was a current student at the time of the attack…” Story at…
My cmt: Gotta love those Democrats. They wrote the bill.
 
HOW LOW WILL IT GO (invezz - Thursday)
“While the 200-day MA is a key psychological marker, Krinsky [BTIG’s chief market technician] sees 6,520 as the “more important” level for investors to watch. That level represents both the November and Q4 low (2025). If the index fails to hold this support, it will signal a profound shift in market dynamics, he told CNBC.” Story at…
 
QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Friday the S&P 500 fell about 1.5% to 6506.
-VIX rose about 11% to 26.78.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.384% (compared to about this time prior market day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS
SPY – Added 12/1/2025.
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025 & 2/6/2026
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 20 gave Bear-signs and 8 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
 
TODAY’S COMMENT
S&P 500 drop from the Top: 6.8%
S&P 500 % above 200-dMA: -1.7%
Trading Days since top: 47. (Avg top to bottom for corrections less than 10% = 32 days, but the 10% correction in Sept of 2023 lasted 64-days top to bottom.)
 
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators remained -12 (12 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators), a BEARISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued higher – a BULLISH indication. (There was a bounce higher about 10-days ago and that may be sending the 10-dMA higher – perhaps a false signal.)
 
Options trading stopped today with expiration tomorrow.  That pushed volumes much higher than normal. The level of volume Friday usually indicates a higher level of fear suggesting selling will continue. On the other hand, the volume was so high that it may indicate capitulation. I say “may” because the options expiration may have skewed the data. Still, there were several Bottom Signals Friday:
 
BOTTOM SIGNALS
-The Panic indicator flashed a warning.  This indicator can be either Bearish or Bullish depending on whether markets are at a top or bottom. Now, it’s a Bullish sign.
-Only 7 of the last 20-days have been up. That level of negativism is bullish.
-Both Bollinger Bands and RSI are oversold.
-My Smart Money indicator is oversold.
-Only 15% of issues on the NYSE advanced Friday.  That is a number that usually occurs around bottoms, although it can be early.
 
This is probably not be a bottom, but it does suggest a bounce next week. Alternatively, the markets could make a bottom next week.
 
Here’s an old note from Jeffrey Saut concerning a previous decline:
“…last week I began suggesting that we could be in one of these “selling stampedes” that tend to last 17 – 25 sessions, with only 1.5- to three-day pauses/throwback rallies, before they exhaust themselves on the downside…I also said that it was too soon to tell yet if this is such a stampede, but “Never on a Friday.” The reference was that once the markets get into one of these weekly downside skeins, they rarely bottom on a Friday. Nope, they typically give participants over the weekend to brood about their losses and then they show up the next Monday in “sell mode” leading to Turning Tuesday.”
 
So far, this selling episode had lasted 17 sessions. Turning Tuesday? We’ll see.
 
BOTTOM LINE
No change here: I am bearish on the markets in the short-term; but I remain fully invested at 55% in stocks. The remainder of my portfolio is about 25% bonds and 20% cash. 
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
 
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
 
The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
 
FRIDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
My basket of Market Internals declined to SELL. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
 
 
My invested position is about 55% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                              
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.
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