Tuesday, May 12, 2026

CPI … Business Optimism … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
 
“Never, never, never, believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on that strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The Statesman who yields to war fever . . . is no longer the master of policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.” - Winston Churchill.
 
CPI (CNBC)
“Prices that consumers pay for a wide range of goods and services increased at a faster-than-expected pace in April, as another burst in energy prices raised further concerns about inflation’s impact on the U.S. economy.
The consumer price index rose at a seasonally adjusted 0.6% for the month, putting the one-year pace at 3.8%...the core CPI increased 0.4% and 2.8%, respectively…”

Story and charts at…
 
NFIB BUSINESS OPTIMISM (NFIB)
"The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index rose 0.1 points in April to 95.9, below its 52-year average of 98.0 for the second consecutive month…“Inflationary pressures continue to be a challenge for Main Street,” said NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg. “While small business optimism is currently fragile, the benefits of the Working Families Tax Cut Act should start to feed into the private sector over the next few months.” …As reported in NFIB’s monthly jobs report, the NFIB Small Business Employment Index fell 1.2 points from March to 100.4. This decline is indicative of weakening in the labor market, though the level still suggests balance.” Report at…
 
QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Tuesday the S&P 500 declined about 0.2% to 7401.
-VIX rose about 2% to 17.99.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.465% (compared to about this time prior market day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS
SPY – Added 12/1/2025.
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025 & 2/6/2026
“Despite all the bearish noise, Goldman Sachs isn’t backing down on Nvidia (NVDA) stock yet. After another stellar GTC showing, the bank reiterated its $250 price target and maintained a buy rating, underscoring confidence in the AI giant’s tremendous upside from current levels.” Story at…  
SSO – Added 5/7/2026.
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 9 gave Bear-signs and 15 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

 
TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined from +11 to +6 (6 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators), a BULLISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations was flat, a NEUTRAL sign that is more important than the daily numbers.
 
There was a Hindenburg Omen yesterday.
“The Hindenburg Omen is a technical analysis indicator that attempts to predict stock market crashes by identifying periods of market instability. It is named after the Hindenburg disaster, a German airship that caught fire in 1937. The omen is triggered when specific market conditions, such as a large number of stocks making both new 52-week highs and lows, occur within a short time frame.” – Investopedia.
 
Hindenburg Omens don’t have a great record of being correct; however, they do tend to give a good signal if there is a cluster of Omens. So far, we’ve seen just one. The short-term Fosback High-Low Logic Index uses a similar method of analysis. It is not issuing a sell.
 
Breadth is falling and again is issuing a warning signal - over the last 2 weeks, and the last 5 months, more issues on the NYSE have gone down than have gone up.
 
I’ll consider selling my SSO position Wednesday if conditions continue to decline.
 
BOTTOM LINE
I am cautiously bullish.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
 

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
 
TUESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
 
My invested position is about 60% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                              
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.
 
  

Posted by at