“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
“Never, never, never, believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on that strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The Statesman who yields to war fever . . . is no longer the master of policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.” - Winston Churchill.
“…it turns out many bettors in prediction market Kalshi are pretty bearish about the stock market. Nearly 90% of the wagers on "How low will the S&P 500 get this year" are calling for a plunge of at least 16%. And nearly 13% are betting on a crash of more than 21%...Investors learn time and time again that eventually, reality catches up with markets. Already, shares of newly public Space Exploration, Elon Musk's massive bet on an interstellar AI empire are coming back to earth. Shares of Microsoft, too, one of the earliest players in AI with its investment in OpenAI, are down nearly 20% this year. Yes, AI is amazing. And there are other positive events driving the S&P 500. But gamblers think it's time to take some chips off the table.” Story at…
Traders bet there's an 88% chance the S&P 500 will plunge soon
"The produce price index posted a seasonally adjusted 0.3% decline for the month…On an annual basis, the index indicated a 5.5% inflation rate…Excluding food and energy, the core PPI rose 0.2%...” Story at…
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/15/wholesale-inflation-june-2026-.html
"A report released by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York on Wednesday showed regional manufacturing activity has picked up considerably in the month of July. The New York Fed said its general business conditions index jumped to 15.6 in July from 5.7 in June, with a positive reading indicating growth.” Story at…
https://www.rttnews.com/amp/3667274/new-york-manufacturing-activity-picks-up-considerably-in-july.aspx
-Wednesday the S&P 500 rose about 0.4% to 7572.
-VIX declined about 5% to 15.67.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.551% (compared to about this time prior market day).
QLD – Added 5/28/2026
“…the market appears to be pricing Nvidia as though its best growth opportunities are behind it. This is not the first time such a rerating has occurred with Nvidia. In earlier instances when Nvidia's forward P/E contracted amid consolidation or shifting sentiment, subsequent evidence of accelerating revenue and profitability triggered multiple expansions. This pattern is consistent: Once operational results confirm that the company's AI-driven growth is continuing, investors eventually reengage, and the valuation rerates higher.,, Patient investors who recognize that Nvidia's recent price action reflects investor caution rather than a fundamental deterioration of its thesis can position themselves to benefit from meaningful share price appreciation as the chip giant continues to execute.” – Motley Fool at…
Nvidia stock has only gained 5% so far in 2026. History is crystal clear on where the stock is headed next
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 6 gave Bear-signs and 14 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined from +2 to +8 (8 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators), a NEUTRAL indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued higher, a BULLISH sign.
I am bullish again.
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
Google has replaced Verizon in the Dow 30. It will take a while for me to update the momentum chart.
The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.
