… Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
 
“Never, never, never, believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on that strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The Statesman who yields to war fever . . . is no longer the master of policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.” - Winston Churchill.
 
“There’s a lot of exuberance out there,” Dimon continued. “But it was in 1972, 1986, 2000, 2007. That doesn’t give me comfort.” – Jamie Dimon
 
VACCINATION DEATHS / MURDER (AP)
“An Idaho woman who said her toddler twins died last year after being vaccinated faces murder charges connected to their deaths, authorities said. A grand jury indicted Andrea Shaw, who is accused of suffocating her 18-month-old twins in May 2025, on two counts of first-degree murder on June 29, according to court records and a statement from the Payette Police Department…Shaw is also a plaintiff in a federal lawsuit brought by Children’s Health Defense [an anti-vaccine group founded by Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr.] and others against the American Academy of Pediatrics. The lawsuit, which was filed in January in federal court in Washington, accuses the American Academy of Pediatrics of racketeering for its “central role in an enterprise that has defrauded American families about the safety of the childhood vaccine schedule for several decades.” In the lawsuit, Shaw is described as a mother “whose children died following routine vaccinations administered according to AAP guidelines.” Story at…
An Idaho mother who said her toddler twins died after vaccinations has been charged with murder
My cmt: I asked Google AI how many children died last year from hepatitis A, influenza, or DTaP vaccines. The answer: “Zero children died from receiving hepatitis A, influenza, or DTaP vaccines. These vaccines are rigorously tested for safety, and medical experts confirm that deaths caused by them are exceptionally rare. In fact, pediatric deaths occur because children contract these preventable diseases, primarily when they are unvaccinated. - CDC
 
SHIPS HIT IN THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ (NBC News)
“Oil prices jumped Tuesday to their highest level since late last week after reports that two tankers transiting the Strait of Hormuz had been hit by unknown projectiles.” Story at…
Oil prices rise as attacks revive safety concerns in the Strait of Hormuz
My cmt: It looks like Trump may have to finish what he started. CENTCOM announce new strikes on Iran.
 
QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Tuesday the S&P 500 declined about 0.5% to 7537.
-VIX declined about 3% to 16.11.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.551% (compared to about this time prior market day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS
QLD – Added 5/28/2026
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025 & 2/6/2026
“According to the 54 analysts' twelve-month price targets for NVIDIA, the average price target is $278.73. The highest price target for NVDA is $360.00, while the lowest price target for NVDA is $205.00.”- MarketBeat at… 
https://www.marketbeat.com/stocks/NASDAQ/NVDA/forecast/
XLK – Added 6/5/2026
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 6 gave Bear-signs and 16 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
 

TODAY’S COMMENT

Today’s market action seems to mirror the last 2 months – mostly confused and not making any progress, but indicators have been improving. That’s a good sign, although they slipped slightly today.
 
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined from +11 to +10 (10 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators), a BULLISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued higher a BULLISH sign that smooths daily fluctuations.
 
After flashing a sell signal for the last 3 weeks the Fosback Hi/Low Logic Indicator finally improved to a neutral signal. Like the Hindenburg Omen, this indicator warns when both new 52-week highs and new 52-week lows are elevated.
 
Micron Technology was down almost 5% today and another 1% after hours. Its trailing PE is now around 21. The PEG Rato is PE divided by Growth Rate. Micron’s PEG Ratio is a miniscule 0.03 while its 5-year PEG Ratio is around 0.2. “Historically, a PEG ratio of 1.0 or less generally suggests that the stock may be undervalued relative to its earnings growth. Micron Technology's exceptionally low ratio is primarily driven by its massive, cyclical earnings surge as demand for semiconductor memory in AI and integrated systems remains robust.” – Zachs Investment Research. Investors seem to think a huge amount of Micron’s revenue is going to dry up – they are acting like the AI build-out is going to end soon. I suspect they are over reacting, but I am no expert there.
 
BOTTOM LINE
I am bullish, although the Iran news doesn’t look good.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)

Google has replaced Verizon in the Dow 30. It will take a while for me to update the momentum chart.
 
The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
 
TUESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals declined to HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
                                                                         

My invested position is about 60% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                              
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.